JEWISH KING JESUS IS COMING AT THE RAPTURE FOR US IN THE CLOUDS-DON'T MISS IT FOR THE WORLD.THE BIBLE TAKEN LITERALLY- WHEN THE PLAIN SENSE MAKES GOOD SENSE-SEEK NO OTHER SENSE-LEST YOU END UP IN NONSENSE.
THE RUSSIA - UKRAINE SITUATION AT 12:03AM FRI MAR 21,14
WORLD POWERS IN THE LAST DAYS (END OF AGE OF GRACE NOT THE WORLD)
EUROPEAN UNION-KING OF WEST-DAN 9:26-27,DAN 7:23-24,DAN 11:40,REV 13:1-10
EGYPT-KING OF THE SOUTH-DAN 11:40
RUSSIA-KING OF THE NORTH-EZEK 38:1-2,EZEK 39:1-3
CHINA-KING OF THE EAST-DAN 11:44,REV 9:16,18
VATICAN-RELIGIOUS LEADER-REV 13:11-18,REV 17:4-5,9,18
U.S. eyes military supplies for Ukraine, seeks to avoid escalation-By Phil Stewart and David Alexander - MAR 21,14-Yahoonews
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Pentagon said on Thursday it was focusing for now on Ukrainian requests for non-lethal support, as opposed to any weaponry, as a senior U.S. official said Washington wanted to avoid further militarizing the standoff with Russia.Ukraine's government has put its heavily outnumbered and outgunned forces on alert for an invasion from Russia in the east following Moscow's seizure of Crimea.Kiev has asked for military support from the United States, which U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say includes small arms, as well as non-lethal assistance, such as medical supplies.So far, the U.S. government has only approved providing military food rations, officials say, as President Barack Obama's government instead focused on financial support for Ukraine and pressuring Russia diplomatically."I think it's safe to say that right now, the focus of that review (of Ukraine's military requests) is on the non-lethal side of things," Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby told a news briefing."But it is very much still an active issue under consideration."Obama's critics, including Senator John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, have lambasted the hesitancy, saying last week the United States should not be "imposing an arms embargo on a victim of aggression."Still, a senior administration official, defended Obama's approach on Thursday, as Washington unveiled new sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest long-time political and business allies."It's our view that the best course here is to lay down strong costs through these sanctions ... We don't want to take steps to add to a momentum of further militarizing the situation," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.Kirby did not offer a timeline for the review of Ukrainian requests. He noted the food rations have not been delivered yet."There are other non-lethal items which are being considered. I don't want to go into them by detail and give you a shopping list, but, in general, it's on the order of medical supplies and uniform equipment and that kind of thing," he said.(Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle and Lesley Wroughton; Writing by Phil Stewart; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
Pentagon Not Ready for Cold War 2
By Jacob Siegel -The Daily Beast-MAR 20,14-Yahoonews
There’s an old saying in the military that we’re always training for the last war, so fixated on the lessons of our most recent conflict that we’re blind to the emerging threat.For years, that last war was the Cold War, and the emerging threat was the insurgents of Iraq and Afghanistan. Slowly, painfully, eventually, the military reoriented itself. The result? After more than two decades of post Cold War re-alignment, the military is less prepared than it has been in generations for a confrontation with Russia.No one in Washington is calling for the U.S. to go to war over Crimea and there are plenty of reasons why, at this point, military intervention could be a dangerous and foolhardy course. But if circumstances change and political leaders start looking to the military or the bargaining power that comes from a credible threat of force, they will find their options severely limited.Over the course of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq soldiers and marines have trained for maneuvering and fighting in small units over the landscape of the Middle East. Counter-insurgency (“COIN”) doctrine, which stresses engagement with local civilian populations and tactics for fighting loosely organized forces employing light weapons, has become the military’s new bible. It’s about as far away as you can get from the principles used in the Cold War.According to retired General David Deptula, who served as the Air Force’s top intelligence officer, “we’ve been focused on the far left end of the spectrum of operations,” by which he means the protracted, low-intensity conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. But, he says, “if we want to maintain superpower status we need to be prepared to succeed across the full range of operations, not just the left end of it.” Even the few strategists that weren’t pre-occupied by Iraq and Afghanistan were planning for the much-touted Asia pivot, envisioning a future, one they’d argue is still looming, defined by Chinese hegemony. Russia, meanwhile, was considered by many to be an historical relic; still big enough to wield real power but no longer capable of threatening U.S. vital interests and a second or third order afterthought when evaluating threats the military needed to plan for.“For years there have been only a handful of people consistently talking about Russia and China building highly advanced systems for use against our ‘Cold-War era’ aircraft, missiles and ships,” Deptula says.He’s talking about himself and some of his closest confidants at the Air Force, who pushed for continued production of high-end weaponry like the F-22 stealth fighter—right when the Iraq insurgency was at its peak. It made Deptula and his gang seem like Mach 2 dinosaurs, pining for a conflict with an imaginary enemy while the real bad guys were blowing up Marines in Fallujah. Understandably, Robert Gates, the Defense Secretary of the time, wanted the military to focus on the wars America was actually fighting at the moment. And so eventually, many of Deptula’s colleagues—including Gen. Michael “Buzz” Moseley, the Air Force’s top officer—were shown the door when they opposed Gates once too often. According to Deptula, “those people were ignored by [former Defense Secretary] Gates, and some were fired because they had the courage to speak truth to power.”
As the White House and Pentagon planners consider what to do if Russia invades Eastern Ukraine or deploys its forces elsewhere in the region, the limited choices available reveal just how profoundly the military has changed since the Cold War.For half a century, Cold War military strategy focused on containing Russia and winning in clashes between large conventional forces. On the ground, that strategy called for mass formations organized around tanks and heavy weaponry. In the skies it relied on dominance in Top Gun style style air-to-air fighting prowess, radar evading stealth technology, and powerful bombers that could drop massive munitions to destroy enemy armor and fortified installations.Since the end of the Cold War, that strategy has been completely overhauled. Training and doctrine have focused on small unit tactics while new weapons and vehicles have been designed with squads in mind rather than divisions. Super-sophisticated dogfighters, like the $187 million-a-pop F-22, suddenly seemed too fancy to actually use. Who would fit the bill if one actually went down? Instead, drones costing less than a tenth the price littered the skies over Afghanistan and Iraq.But those drones are useless against any military with a half-decent system for shooting down enemy aircraft. And Russian has one of the best air defenses on the planet. Suddenly, it’s those iconic Predator drones that seem obsolete.“Hopefully the situation with Russia and Ukraine will be a bucket of cold water on those who believe all we need to be able to do is counter-insurgency operations,” Deptula told The Daily Beast.And now, there are signs that the U.S. Air Force’s long-held technological advantage may be eroding.The new generation of Russian fighter plane, the T-50, isn’t yet fully operational but it “will be produced much sooner that Gates and his crowd predicted,” Deptula says. He adds that “once the T-50s are produced in sufficient numbers there won’t be anything in the NATO fleet that can deal with them except the F-22s and F-35s.”David Axe, the long-time military tech writer notes that the T-50, which can fire long-range missiles while flying both high and fast, may be able to “exploit critical vulnerabilities in U.S. and allied forces and level the air power playing field for the first time in a generation.”An independent Australian think tank, Air Power Australia, drew a more severe conclusion. “If the United States does not fundamentally change its planning for the future of tactical air power, the advantage held for decades will be soon lost and American air power will become an artifact of history.”While Russian aircraft rely on speed and long flight times, the U.S. fleet is largely built for stealth so it can evade detection and anti-air weapons to engage targets at closer ranges. But the stealth capability, is now being challenged by advances in Russia’s radar detection platforms and anti-aircraft weapons.“Today,” Deptula said, “the Russians have an extant significant advantage in their surface to air capabilities.” And that with the exception of the U.S.’s small number of highly advanced 5th generation aircraft, “the Russians can conduct area denial of any airspace within range of their defenses if they want to deny access to aircraft.”Since 2001, the Pentagon has had good reasons for prioritizing spending for troops on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan over speculative needs for future wars, but a consequence has been that we now have what Deptula calls “a geriatric Air Force and Navy fleet.”
No one, not even Deptula, is suggesting that there’s about to be some all-out showdown between Moscow’s military and Washington. But it’s not at all unlikely, given the new and chilly climate, that American forces and allies could wind up in skirmishes with proxies equipped and trained by Russia. The U.S. used to be able to count on an overwhelming technological advantage. Tomorrow, maybe not.Foreshadows of this are already being cast. Already, Russia is outfitting the Assad regime in Syria while America runs guns to the rebels there. It’s the Russian side that’s winning.The change isn’t just about equipment or tactics, though, American forces trained in counter-insurgency who are stationed in Europe could still be deployed to hold the line against Russian advances. But there are drastically fewer forces left in Europe available to be called upon in such an event.An analysis of Defense cuts published by the conservative American Enterprise Institute in 2013 reported that “the Army alone has closed 100 installations in Europe since 2003 and plans on returning an additional 47 installations to host nations by 2015.” The same report notes, “the Navy has also been consolidating and decreasing its European bases” and “since 1990, the Air Force has reduced aircraft and forces stationed in Europe by 75 percent.” Addressing the future of America’s military footprint in Europe, the paper concludes that the Pentagon is “planning to continue reducing the US presence in Europe by approximately 15 percent over the coming decade.”The military can’t be equally prepared for every threat and if its focus has been on counter-insurgency, that’s because those are the wars we’ve been fighting for the past twelve years.Generations of veterans who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan have been raised and bled on COIN doctrine but, as combat demands, they have also learned how to be agile. Individual leaders on the battlefield are able to adapt quickly; it’s the military bureaucracy that’s like a tank: a slow, immensely powerful machine that’s only capable of plotting one course at a time. Quick turns are not an option.Without many viable military options to counter Russian aggression what’s left for U.S. leaders seeking to punish Russia and assure our NATO allies that we’ll protect them? Cunning diplomacy, maybe.Crimea is Russian now; that’s not changing any time soon. Condemning the invasion and the fixed terms of the referendum have no more bearing on the current situation than the reasons Russia gave for annexing Crimea—some of them legitimate—ultimately had to do with the duplicity and force they used to take it. The real question, and the subtext in much of the current talk about Crimea, is whether Russia will stop there or proceed to further conquests. Despite it’s show of force in Crimea, Moscow has a lot to lose if the conflict broadens and draws in the U.S. and NATO. Russia has gas to sell to Europe, oligarchs counting on feeling comfortable in their London townhouses, a new middle class looking for normalcy that’s already taken to the streets in protest, and the memory of Chechnya, a brutal war that took thousands of lives, fresh in the national memory.If U.S. officials can present a deal that satisfies American aims while appealing to Russia’s self-interest, they may be able to prevent a larger conflict. But a new age of competition with Russia? That may be even harder to head off.
Europe adds 12 names to Russia sanctions, plans broader move-Yahoonews
MAR 21,14-By Luke Baker and Adrian Croft
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European leaders added 12 people to a list of those subject to travel bans and asset freezes for their part in Russia's seizure of Crimea on Thursday and begin preparations for economic sanctions if Russia expands its footprint in Ukraine.French President Francois Hollande declined to give details of the names added to the list, which was agreed among the EU's 28 leaders after six hours of talks, but said it included Russians and Crimeans and raised the total number of people subject to EU sanctions to 33.German Chancellor Angela Merkel said preparations would also be made for possible trade and economic measures against Russia if it moves beyond Crimea into southern and eastern Ukraine, and confirmed that the EU was calling off an EU-Russia summit scheduled for June, severing political ties."We are ready to start stage three if there is further escalation with a view to Ukraine, those are economic sanctions and we asked the European Commission today to do preparatory work for possible economic sanctions," she said.The steps were in line with what was expected from the EU but fell short of the United States, which added 20 people and businesses to its sanctions list on Thursday, including a bank and oligarchs close to Putin.One of the major difficulties the EU faces in matching the U.S. response is maintaining unity, since EU sanctions must be agreed unanimously among all member states.With several countries depending on Russia for oil and gas or having close trade, investment and business links to Moscow, there was a reluctance to push too hard, too quickly. Instead, the EU is looking to steadily ratchet up the pressure.At the same time, the EU plans to sign an "association agreement" with Ukraine on Friday, promising closer political and trade ties that will help draw Ukraine more closely into the heart of Europe and boost its economic growth.European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the EU would also bring forward plans to finalize similar agreements with Moldova and Georgia, signing them by June at the latest rather than by the end of the year.That will send a signal to Russia that the EU is committed to drawing former Soviet states more closely into its orbit and away from Moscow's influence. Russia in 2008 invaded portions of northern Georgia and has close ties with Moldova and the disputed Transnistria region on its eastern edge.(Additional reporting by Noah Barkin in Berlin and Barbara Lewis, Jan Strupczewski, Justyna Pawlak and Robin Emmott in Brussels; Editing by Giles Elgood, Anna Willard and Philippa Fletcher)
EU targets Putin's inner circle, scraps summit-By RAF CASERT and MIKE CORDER - MAR 21,14-Yahoonews
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union on Thursday slapped travel bans and asset freezes on 12 more people, closing in on President Vladimir Putin's inner circle to punish him in the escalating crisis over the Russian annexation of the Crimea peninsula.The move brought the number of Russians and Ukrainians facing EU sanctions to 33, and French President Francois Hollande said it included a lot of crossover with the people the United States is targeting with similar measures."We added 12 people, in concert with the Americans," Hollande said.The 28-nation bloc said the names of the sanctioned would be published Friday. "Some of them are really high-ranking," said EU President Herman Van Rompuy.The EU leaders also tasked its executive Commission to prepare a raft of economic sanctions that could be imposed if one of the biggest political crises in Europe since the Cold War worsens further."We cover all economic areas," said Van Rompuy, implying it could include an arms embargo against Russia.As Europe got tougher, President Barack Obama announced the United States is also levying a new round of sanctions on individuals in Russia. Russia hit back, imposing entry bans on nine U.S. lawmakers and officials in response to Washington's sanctions. President Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania said the EU was closely behind the United States."It is already time to target the close circle of Putin," she said.Beyond punishing Russia, the EU also wanted to show backing for Ukraine, which lost Crimea to Moscow on Tuesday.British Prime Minster David Cameron said the two-day summit would also focus on strengthening Ukraine's fledgling government, calling on the 28 EU nations' need to bolster the new Ukrainian authorities with political commitments and economic aid.Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk will sign a political agreement Friday with EU leaders, underscoring Europe's commitment to the new leadership in Kiev.Speaking to France-24 television from Brussels, he called the agreement "the first big tremendous step to make Ukraine really a part of big Europe.""We do understand that this is only the first step," Yatsenyuk said. "But this will pave the way to real reforms ... that my country urgently needs."Despite the tough talk, there also is concern in Europe about inflicting too much economic damage as the continent crawls out of a crippling financial crisis.The EU is Moscow's biggest trading partner, and Russia is the EU's third-largest partner, mostly thanks to exports of raw materials such as oil and gas. Because of the multi-billion trade exchanges, any step toward economic sanctions will not be taken lightly."The Russian economy is already hurt by what Putin is doing," Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said, adding that a spree of retaliatory sanctions would hurt everyone."We need to prepare ourselves and that means, of course, hurting ourselves in a way," he said.___Associated Press writer Jamey Keaten contributed from Paris.___Follow Raf Casert on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/rcasert-Follow Mike Corder on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/mikecorder.
Echoes of Crimea keep Ukraine's east rumbling-By YURAS KARMANAU and PETER LEONARD -Mar 21,14-Yahoonews
ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine (AP) — The disheveled men barricading the muddy lane leading into a military facility in this eastern Ukraine town say they are making a stand to defend the region's Russian-speaking majority.In the nearby city of Donetsk, gangs of pro-Russian activists and Cossacks armed with sticks and bats have been storming one local government office after another, only to leave a short while later.It looks a lot like Crimea.But despite feeling or speaking Russian, many in these eastern regions still adhere strongly to their Ukrainian identity, so things could play out far differently."Russia has been unable to achieve the rapid breakaway of eastern Ukraine and we are focused on a long-term scenario," said Andrei Purgin, whose banned Donetsk Republic separatist group has been engaged in the seizure of public administration buildings.Rumblings in the east began soon after last month's ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych, whose political strongholds lay mainly in the nation's Russian-speaking Donbass industrial heartland.The protests that brought about his downfall and paralyzed the capital, Kiev, were perceived by many here as ardent Ukrainian nationalism.In truth, the monthslong protests on Kiev's Independence Square were focused on a desire to fight corruption and strengthen ties with Europe. But when the new parliament that took center stage after Yanukovych's overthrow moved to drop Russian as an official language, easterners' worst suspicions and fears seemed to have been realized.Although the new government quickly backed off that proposal, the damage had been done.Police in a dozen cities across the Donbass — including Donetsk, Kharkiv and Lugansk — have struggled to thwart pro-Russian rabbles from seizing local government buildings in protest.At the military facility in Artemivsk, several dozen pro-Russian activists, many of them wearing black leather jackets, intermittently formed a human cordon Thursday to stop vehicles from entering or exiting. They argue that blockading the facility would prevent the use of armed forces to quell popular discontent against the interim government."Power in Kiev has been seized by a junta that wants to speak to defiant people in eastern Ukraine with weapons and force. We will not allow this," declared Sergei Varyuschenko, a 63-year-old businessman taking part in the endeavor.Not unlike the encampment erected by protesters in Kiev's main square, also known as the Maidan, pro-Russia activists in Artemivsk have pitched tents, installed an open-air field kitchen and burn wood in steel drums to warm themselves."We'll show them Maidan. The east of Ukraine will live separately, by its own laws," said Varyuschenko, who was spending his third day camping out.For some, like 46-year-old Donetsk miner Anton Skachko, the disillusionment with Ukraine's new government is about the economic consequences. "We are tired of revolutions and upheavals in Kiev. One set of thieves is replaced by another, and the economic situation just gets worse. We want stability and peace, and only Russia can give us that," Skachko said.Around Donetsk, a city of nearly 1 million people, pro-Russian activists have set up 10 checkpoints to inspect vehicles for suspicious content. They say they are trying to keep what they call radical nationalists from western Ukraine from bringing in weapons to make trouble.For all this activity, allies of the Kiev government in the east are confident they can avert the kind of widespread unrest that might prompt Moscow to send in troops to restore order and protect its Russian-speaking brethren.Metals billionaire Sergei Taruta, who was recently appointed governor of the Donetsk province, an area where he has vast business interests, is fighting hard to reassert the new Ukrainian leadership's authority over the east.Taruta said that despite what he called signs that the Russian government has been engaged in fomenting unrest in Donetsk, a repeat of Crimea is impossible there."The majority of the population in the Donbass takes the position that we are an inalienable part and the heart of Ukraine," he told The Associated Press.Among his first actions was ordering the arrest of Pavel Gubarev, a self-proclaimed "people's governor" of Donetsk, and replacing the heads of local branches of the Interior Ministry and security services. Police have been brought in from neighboring regions to help keep public order.In addition, Taruta financed the construction of a 120-mile-long (180-kilometer) anti-tank trench with neighboring Russia, where military forces have assembled for exercises that Ukraine sees as a thinly disguised threat.But he said he is most worried about the activities of Russian citizens he claims are flooding across the border to sow trouble."There are representatives here from Russia. I do not know who is sending them. The Kremlin or other organizations, I do not know," Taruta said. "But our law enforcement bodies understand exactly what is going on in Donetsk."Sporadic violent confrontations between pro-Russians activists and their opponents in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks have regularly been followed up by harshly worded statements from Russia's Foreign Ministry asserting they are evidence of Kiev's inability to protect the east's pro-Russia population from trouble-making radical nationalists.Russia justified its intervention in Crimea by citing similar fears over nationalist threats, although there is little evidence Russians there have faced any danger.Some pro-Russian activists are coy about their exact provenance, others less so.Alexei Khudyakov, the head of the Russia-based Shield of Moscow, a nationalist group, makes no secret of the fact that "Russian patriots" are traveling to Ukraine."It is becoming harder for Russian activists to come," he said. "Ukrainian border guards have tightened up the entry regime and made it more difficult for Russian citizens to get into Ukraine."But while there is little love lost for the interim government in Kiev among eastern Ukrainians, many of whom would like to see closer economic ties between their country and Russia, disappointment is growing over Russia's annexation of Crimea."I am Russian, but what I see now is that the Kremlin's actions are leading to war. Neither Russians nor Ukrainians need that," said Viktor Gurov, a 38-year-old businessman from Donetsk.In the long run, the sight of mobs tearing down Ukraine's blue-and-yellow flag and replacing it with the Russian tricolor over government buildings in the east could lead to dwindling sympathies for Moscow."I hoped in and believed Russia. But the flag of my country is being torn up and stamped on, and Crimea is occupied. This is like a terrible dream," said 53-year old Donetsk resident Lyudmila Turilo.___Leonard reported from Kiev, Ukraine.
OTHER RUSSIA-UKRAINE NEWS I DONE
http://israndjer.blogspot.ca/2014/03/malaysia-airlines-plane-with-239-on.html
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THE RUSSIA - UKRAINE SITUATION AT 12:03AM FRI MAR 21,14
WORLD POWERS IN THE LAST DAYS (END OF AGE OF GRACE NOT THE WORLD)
EUROPEAN UNION-KING OF WEST-DAN 9:26-27,DAN 7:23-24,DAN 11:40,REV 13:1-10
EGYPT-KING OF THE SOUTH-DAN 11:40
RUSSIA-KING OF THE NORTH-EZEK 38:1-2,EZEK 39:1-3
CHINA-KING OF THE EAST-DAN 11:44,REV 9:16,18
VATICAN-RELIGIOUS LEADER-REV 13:11-18,REV 17:4-5,9,18
U.S. eyes military supplies for Ukraine, seeks to avoid escalation-By Phil Stewart and David Alexander - MAR 21,14-Yahoonews
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Pentagon said on Thursday it was focusing for now on Ukrainian requests for non-lethal support, as opposed to any weaponry, as a senior U.S. official said Washington wanted to avoid further militarizing the standoff with Russia.Ukraine's government has put its heavily outnumbered and outgunned forces on alert for an invasion from Russia in the east following Moscow's seizure of Crimea.Kiev has asked for military support from the United States, which U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say includes small arms, as well as non-lethal assistance, such as medical supplies.So far, the U.S. government has only approved providing military food rations, officials say, as President Barack Obama's government instead focused on financial support for Ukraine and pressuring Russia diplomatically."I think it's safe to say that right now, the focus of that review (of Ukraine's military requests) is on the non-lethal side of things," Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby told a news briefing."But it is very much still an active issue under consideration."Obama's critics, including Senator John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, have lambasted the hesitancy, saying last week the United States should not be "imposing an arms embargo on a victim of aggression."Still, a senior administration official, defended Obama's approach on Thursday, as Washington unveiled new sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest long-time political and business allies."It's our view that the best course here is to lay down strong costs through these sanctions ... We don't want to take steps to add to a momentum of further militarizing the situation," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.Kirby did not offer a timeline for the review of Ukrainian requests. He noted the food rations have not been delivered yet."There are other non-lethal items which are being considered. I don't want to go into them by detail and give you a shopping list, but, in general, it's on the order of medical supplies and uniform equipment and that kind of thing," he said.(Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle and Lesley Wroughton; Writing by Phil Stewart; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
Pentagon Not Ready for Cold War 2
By Jacob Siegel -The Daily Beast-MAR 20,14-Yahoonews
There’s an old saying in the military that we’re always training for the last war, so fixated on the lessons of our most recent conflict that we’re blind to the emerging threat.For years, that last war was the Cold War, and the emerging threat was the insurgents of Iraq and Afghanistan. Slowly, painfully, eventually, the military reoriented itself. The result? After more than two decades of post Cold War re-alignment, the military is less prepared than it has been in generations for a confrontation with Russia.No one in Washington is calling for the U.S. to go to war over Crimea and there are plenty of reasons why, at this point, military intervention could be a dangerous and foolhardy course. But if circumstances change and political leaders start looking to the military or the bargaining power that comes from a credible threat of force, they will find their options severely limited.Over the course of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq soldiers and marines have trained for maneuvering and fighting in small units over the landscape of the Middle East. Counter-insurgency (“COIN”) doctrine, which stresses engagement with local civilian populations and tactics for fighting loosely organized forces employing light weapons, has become the military’s new bible. It’s about as far away as you can get from the principles used in the Cold War.According to retired General David Deptula, who served as the Air Force’s top intelligence officer, “we’ve been focused on the far left end of the spectrum of operations,” by which he means the protracted, low-intensity conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. But, he says, “if we want to maintain superpower status we need to be prepared to succeed across the full range of operations, not just the left end of it.” Even the few strategists that weren’t pre-occupied by Iraq and Afghanistan were planning for the much-touted Asia pivot, envisioning a future, one they’d argue is still looming, defined by Chinese hegemony. Russia, meanwhile, was considered by many to be an historical relic; still big enough to wield real power but no longer capable of threatening U.S. vital interests and a second or third order afterthought when evaluating threats the military needed to plan for.“For years there have been only a handful of people consistently talking about Russia and China building highly advanced systems for use against our ‘Cold-War era’ aircraft, missiles and ships,” Deptula says.He’s talking about himself and some of his closest confidants at the Air Force, who pushed for continued production of high-end weaponry like the F-22 stealth fighter—right when the Iraq insurgency was at its peak. It made Deptula and his gang seem like Mach 2 dinosaurs, pining for a conflict with an imaginary enemy while the real bad guys were blowing up Marines in Fallujah. Understandably, Robert Gates, the Defense Secretary of the time, wanted the military to focus on the wars America was actually fighting at the moment. And so eventually, many of Deptula’s colleagues—including Gen. Michael “Buzz” Moseley, the Air Force’s top officer—were shown the door when they opposed Gates once too often. According to Deptula, “those people were ignored by [former Defense Secretary] Gates, and some were fired because they had the courage to speak truth to power.”
As the White House and Pentagon planners consider what to do if Russia invades Eastern Ukraine or deploys its forces elsewhere in the region, the limited choices available reveal just how profoundly the military has changed since the Cold War.For half a century, Cold War military strategy focused on containing Russia and winning in clashes between large conventional forces. On the ground, that strategy called for mass formations organized around tanks and heavy weaponry. In the skies it relied on dominance in Top Gun style style air-to-air fighting prowess, radar evading stealth technology, and powerful bombers that could drop massive munitions to destroy enemy armor and fortified installations.Since the end of the Cold War, that strategy has been completely overhauled. Training and doctrine have focused on small unit tactics while new weapons and vehicles have been designed with squads in mind rather than divisions. Super-sophisticated dogfighters, like the $187 million-a-pop F-22, suddenly seemed too fancy to actually use. Who would fit the bill if one actually went down? Instead, drones costing less than a tenth the price littered the skies over Afghanistan and Iraq.But those drones are useless against any military with a half-decent system for shooting down enemy aircraft. And Russian has one of the best air defenses on the planet. Suddenly, it’s those iconic Predator drones that seem obsolete.“Hopefully the situation with Russia and Ukraine will be a bucket of cold water on those who believe all we need to be able to do is counter-insurgency operations,” Deptula told The Daily Beast.And now, there are signs that the U.S. Air Force’s long-held technological advantage may be eroding.The new generation of Russian fighter plane, the T-50, isn’t yet fully operational but it “will be produced much sooner that Gates and his crowd predicted,” Deptula says. He adds that “once the T-50s are produced in sufficient numbers there won’t be anything in the NATO fleet that can deal with them except the F-22s and F-35s.”David Axe, the long-time military tech writer notes that the T-50, which can fire long-range missiles while flying both high and fast, may be able to “exploit critical vulnerabilities in U.S. and allied forces and level the air power playing field for the first time in a generation.”An independent Australian think tank, Air Power Australia, drew a more severe conclusion. “If the United States does not fundamentally change its planning for the future of tactical air power, the advantage held for decades will be soon lost and American air power will become an artifact of history.”While Russian aircraft rely on speed and long flight times, the U.S. fleet is largely built for stealth so it can evade detection and anti-air weapons to engage targets at closer ranges. But the stealth capability, is now being challenged by advances in Russia’s radar detection platforms and anti-aircraft weapons.“Today,” Deptula said, “the Russians have an extant significant advantage in their surface to air capabilities.” And that with the exception of the U.S.’s small number of highly advanced 5th generation aircraft, “the Russians can conduct area denial of any airspace within range of their defenses if they want to deny access to aircraft.”Since 2001, the Pentagon has had good reasons for prioritizing spending for troops on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan over speculative needs for future wars, but a consequence has been that we now have what Deptula calls “a geriatric Air Force and Navy fleet.”
No one, not even Deptula, is suggesting that there’s about to be some all-out showdown between Moscow’s military and Washington. But it’s not at all unlikely, given the new and chilly climate, that American forces and allies could wind up in skirmishes with proxies equipped and trained by Russia. The U.S. used to be able to count on an overwhelming technological advantage. Tomorrow, maybe not.Foreshadows of this are already being cast. Already, Russia is outfitting the Assad regime in Syria while America runs guns to the rebels there. It’s the Russian side that’s winning.The change isn’t just about equipment or tactics, though, American forces trained in counter-insurgency who are stationed in Europe could still be deployed to hold the line against Russian advances. But there are drastically fewer forces left in Europe available to be called upon in such an event.An analysis of Defense cuts published by the conservative American Enterprise Institute in 2013 reported that “the Army alone has closed 100 installations in Europe since 2003 and plans on returning an additional 47 installations to host nations by 2015.” The same report notes, “the Navy has also been consolidating and decreasing its European bases” and “since 1990, the Air Force has reduced aircraft and forces stationed in Europe by 75 percent.” Addressing the future of America’s military footprint in Europe, the paper concludes that the Pentagon is “planning to continue reducing the US presence in Europe by approximately 15 percent over the coming decade.”The military can’t be equally prepared for every threat and if its focus has been on counter-insurgency, that’s because those are the wars we’ve been fighting for the past twelve years.Generations of veterans who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan have been raised and bled on COIN doctrine but, as combat demands, they have also learned how to be agile. Individual leaders on the battlefield are able to adapt quickly; it’s the military bureaucracy that’s like a tank: a slow, immensely powerful machine that’s only capable of plotting one course at a time. Quick turns are not an option.Without many viable military options to counter Russian aggression what’s left for U.S. leaders seeking to punish Russia and assure our NATO allies that we’ll protect them? Cunning diplomacy, maybe.Crimea is Russian now; that’s not changing any time soon. Condemning the invasion and the fixed terms of the referendum have no more bearing on the current situation than the reasons Russia gave for annexing Crimea—some of them legitimate—ultimately had to do with the duplicity and force they used to take it. The real question, and the subtext in much of the current talk about Crimea, is whether Russia will stop there or proceed to further conquests. Despite it’s show of force in Crimea, Moscow has a lot to lose if the conflict broadens and draws in the U.S. and NATO. Russia has gas to sell to Europe, oligarchs counting on feeling comfortable in their London townhouses, a new middle class looking for normalcy that’s already taken to the streets in protest, and the memory of Chechnya, a brutal war that took thousands of lives, fresh in the national memory.If U.S. officials can present a deal that satisfies American aims while appealing to Russia’s self-interest, they may be able to prevent a larger conflict. But a new age of competition with Russia? That may be even harder to head off.
Europe adds 12 names to Russia sanctions, plans broader move-Yahoonews
MAR 21,14-By Luke Baker and Adrian Croft
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European leaders added 12 people to a list of those subject to travel bans and asset freezes for their part in Russia's seizure of Crimea on Thursday and begin preparations for economic sanctions if Russia expands its footprint in Ukraine.French President Francois Hollande declined to give details of the names added to the list, which was agreed among the EU's 28 leaders after six hours of talks, but said it included Russians and Crimeans and raised the total number of people subject to EU sanctions to 33.German Chancellor Angela Merkel said preparations would also be made for possible trade and economic measures against Russia if it moves beyond Crimea into southern and eastern Ukraine, and confirmed that the EU was calling off an EU-Russia summit scheduled for June, severing political ties."We are ready to start stage three if there is further escalation with a view to Ukraine, those are economic sanctions and we asked the European Commission today to do preparatory work for possible economic sanctions," she said.The steps were in line with what was expected from the EU but fell short of the United States, which added 20 people and businesses to its sanctions list on Thursday, including a bank and oligarchs close to Putin.One of the major difficulties the EU faces in matching the U.S. response is maintaining unity, since EU sanctions must be agreed unanimously among all member states.With several countries depending on Russia for oil and gas or having close trade, investment and business links to Moscow, there was a reluctance to push too hard, too quickly. Instead, the EU is looking to steadily ratchet up the pressure.At the same time, the EU plans to sign an "association agreement" with Ukraine on Friday, promising closer political and trade ties that will help draw Ukraine more closely into the heart of Europe and boost its economic growth.European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the EU would also bring forward plans to finalize similar agreements with Moldova and Georgia, signing them by June at the latest rather than by the end of the year.That will send a signal to Russia that the EU is committed to drawing former Soviet states more closely into its orbit and away from Moscow's influence. Russia in 2008 invaded portions of northern Georgia and has close ties with Moldova and the disputed Transnistria region on its eastern edge.(Additional reporting by Noah Barkin in Berlin and Barbara Lewis, Jan Strupczewski, Justyna Pawlak and Robin Emmott in Brussels; Editing by Giles Elgood, Anna Willard and Philippa Fletcher)
EU targets Putin's inner circle, scraps summit-By RAF CASERT and MIKE CORDER - MAR 21,14-Yahoonews
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union on Thursday slapped travel bans and asset freezes on 12 more people, closing in on President Vladimir Putin's inner circle to punish him in the escalating crisis over the Russian annexation of the Crimea peninsula.The move brought the number of Russians and Ukrainians facing EU sanctions to 33, and French President Francois Hollande said it included a lot of crossover with the people the United States is targeting with similar measures."We added 12 people, in concert with the Americans," Hollande said.The 28-nation bloc said the names of the sanctioned would be published Friday. "Some of them are really high-ranking," said EU President Herman Van Rompuy.The EU leaders also tasked its executive Commission to prepare a raft of economic sanctions that could be imposed if one of the biggest political crises in Europe since the Cold War worsens further."We cover all economic areas," said Van Rompuy, implying it could include an arms embargo against Russia.As Europe got tougher, President Barack Obama announced the United States is also levying a new round of sanctions on individuals in Russia. Russia hit back, imposing entry bans on nine U.S. lawmakers and officials in response to Washington's sanctions. President Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania said the EU was closely behind the United States."It is already time to target the close circle of Putin," she said.Beyond punishing Russia, the EU also wanted to show backing for Ukraine, which lost Crimea to Moscow on Tuesday.British Prime Minster David Cameron said the two-day summit would also focus on strengthening Ukraine's fledgling government, calling on the 28 EU nations' need to bolster the new Ukrainian authorities with political commitments and economic aid.Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk will sign a political agreement Friday with EU leaders, underscoring Europe's commitment to the new leadership in Kiev.Speaking to France-24 television from Brussels, he called the agreement "the first big tremendous step to make Ukraine really a part of big Europe.""We do understand that this is only the first step," Yatsenyuk said. "But this will pave the way to real reforms ... that my country urgently needs."Despite the tough talk, there also is concern in Europe about inflicting too much economic damage as the continent crawls out of a crippling financial crisis.The EU is Moscow's biggest trading partner, and Russia is the EU's third-largest partner, mostly thanks to exports of raw materials such as oil and gas. Because of the multi-billion trade exchanges, any step toward economic sanctions will not be taken lightly."The Russian economy is already hurt by what Putin is doing," Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said, adding that a spree of retaliatory sanctions would hurt everyone."We need to prepare ourselves and that means, of course, hurting ourselves in a way," he said.___Associated Press writer Jamey Keaten contributed from Paris.___Follow Raf Casert on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/rcasert-Follow Mike Corder on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/mikecorder.
Echoes of Crimea keep Ukraine's east rumbling-By YURAS KARMANAU and PETER LEONARD -Mar 21,14-Yahoonews
ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine (AP) — The disheveled men barricading the muddy lane leading into a military facility in this eastern Ukraine town say they are making a stand to defend the region's Russian-speaking majority.In the nearby city of Donetsk, gangs of pro-Russian activists and Cossacks armed with sticks and bats have been storming one local government office after another, only to leave a short while later.It looks a lot like Crimea.But despite feeling or speaking Russian, many in these eastern regions still adhere strongly to their Ukrainian identity, so things could play out far differently."Russia has been unable to achieve the rapid breakaway of eastern Ukraine and we are focused on a long-term scenario," said Andrei Purgin, whose banned Donetsk Republic separatist group has been engaged in the seizure of public administration buildings.Rumblings in the east began soon after last month's ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych, whose political strongholds lay mainly in the nation's Russian-speaking Donbass industrial heartland.The protests that brought about his downfall and paralyzed the capital, Kiev, were perceived by many here as ardent Ukrainian nationalism.In truth, the monthslong protests on Kiev's Independence Square were focused on a desire to fight corruption and strengthen ties with Europe. But when the new parliament that took center stage after Yanukovych's overthrow moved to drop Russian as an official language, easterners' worst suspicions and fears seemed to have been realized.Although the new government quickly backed off that proposal, the damage had been done.Police in a dozen cities across the Donbass — including Donetsk, Kharkiv and Lugansk — have struggled to thwart pro-Russian rabbles from seizing local government buildings in protest.At the military facility in Artemivsk, several dozen pro-Russian activists, many of them wearing black leather jackets, intermittently formed a human cordon Thursday to stop vehicles from entering or exiting. They argue that blockading the facility would prevent the use of armed forces to quell popular discontent against the interim government."Power in Kiev has been seized by a junta that wants to speak to defiant people in eastern Ukraine with weapons and force. We will not allow this," declared Sergei Varyuschenko, a 63-year-old businessman taking part in the endeavor.Not unlike the encampment erected by protesters in Kiev's main square, also known as the Maidan, pro-Russia activists in Artemivsk have pitched tents, installed an open-air field kitchen and burn wood in steel drums to warm themselves."We'll show them Maidan. The east of Ukraine will live separately, by its own laws," said Varyuschenko, who was spending his third day camping out.For some, like 46-year-old Donetsk miner Anton Skachko, the disillusionment with Ukraine's new government is about the economic consequences. "We are tired of revolutions and upheavals in Kiev. One set of thieves is replaced by another, and the economic situation just gets worse. We want stability and peace, and only Russia can give us that," Skachko said.Around Donetsk, a city of nearly 1 million people, pro-Russian activists have set up 10 checkpoints to inspect vehicles for suspicious content. They say they are trying to keep what they call radical nationalists from western Ukraine from bringing in weapons to make trouble.For all this activity, allies of the Kiev government in the east are confident they can avert the kind of widespread unrest that might prompt Moscow to send in troops to restore order and protect its Russian-speaking brethren.Metals billionaire Sergei Taruta, who was recently appointed governor of the Donetsk province, an area where he has vast business interests, is fighting hard to reassert the new Ukrainian leadership's authority over the east.Taruta said that despite what he called signs that the Russian government has been engaged in fomenting unrest in Donetsk, a repeat of Crimea is impossible there."The majority of the population in the Donbass takes the position that we are an inalienable part and the heart of Ukraine," he told The Associated Press.Among his first actions was ordering the arrest of Pavel Gubarev, a self-proclaimed "people's governor" of Donetsk, and replacing the heads of local branches of the Interior Ministry and security services. Police have been brought in from neighboring regions to help keep public order.In addition, Taruta financed the construction of a 120-mile-long (180-kilometer) anti-tank trench with neighboring Russia, where military forces have assembled for exercises that Ukraine sees as a thinly disguised threat.But he said he is most worried about the activities of Russian citizens he claims are flooding across the border to sow trouble."There are representatives here from Russia. I do not know who is sending them. The Kremlin or other organizations, I do not know," Taruta said. "But our law enforcement bodies understand exactly what is going on in Donetsk."Sporadic violent confrontations between pro-Russians activists and their opponents in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks have regularly been followed up by harshly worded statements from Russia's Foreign Ministry asserting they are evidence of Kiev's inability to protect the east's pro-Russia population from trouble-making radical nationalists.Russia justified its intervention in Crimea by citing similar fears over nationalist threats, although there is little evidence Russians there have faced any danger.Some pro-Russian activists are coy about their exact provenance, others less so.Alexei Khudyakov, the head of the Russia-based Shield of Moscow, a nationalist group, makes no secret of the fact that "Russian patriots" are traveling to Ukraine."It is becoming harder for Russian activists to come," he said. "Ukrainian border guards have tightened up the entry regime and made it more difficult for Russian citizens to get into Ukraine."But while there is little love lost for the interim government in Kiev among eastern Ukrainians, many of whom would like to see closer economic ties between their country and Russia, disappointment is growing over Russia's annexation of Crimea."I am Russian, but what I see now is that the Kremlin's actions are leading to war. Neither Russians nor Ukrainians need that," said Viktor Gurov, a 38-year-old businessman from Donetsk.In the long run, the sight of mobs tearing down Ukraine's blue-and-yellow flag and replacing it with the Russian tricolor over government buildings in the east could lead to dwindling sympathies for Moscow."I hoped in and believed Russia. But the flag of my country is being torn up and stamped on, and Crimea is occupied. This is like a terrible dream," said 53-year old Donetsk resident Lyudmila Turilo.___Leonard reported from Kiev, Ukraine.
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