Monday, December 10, 2012

BILL GROSS ON THE FISCAL CLIFF- 16 TRILLION NOT JUST 4

KING JESUS IS COMING FOR US ANY TIME NOW. THE RAPTURE. BE PREPARED TO GO.

JAMES 5:1-3
1 Go to now, ye rich men, weep and howl for your miseries that shall come upon you.
2 Your riches are corrupted, and your garments are motheaten.
3 Your gold and silver is cankered; and the rust of them shall be a witness against you, and shall eat your flesh as it were fire. Ye have heaped treasure together for the last days.

REVELATION 18:10,17,19
10 Standing afar off for the fear of her torment, saying, Alas, alas that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.
17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,
19 And they cast dust on their heads, and cried, weeping and wailing, saying, Alas, alas that great city, wherein were made rich all that had ships in the sea by reason of her costliness! for in one hour is she made desolate.

EZEKIEL 7:19
19 They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity.

REVELATION 13:16-18
16 And he(THE FALSE POPE WHO DEFECTED FROM THE CHRISTIAN FAITH) causeth all,(IN THE WORLD ) both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:(MICROCHIP IMPLANT)
17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark,(MICROCHIP IMPLANT) or the name of the beast,(WORLD DICTATORS NAME INGRAVED ON YOUR SKIN OR TATTOOED ON YOU OR IN THE MICROCHIP IMPLANT) or the number of his name.(THE NUMBERS OF HIS NAME INGRAVED IN THE MICROCHIP IMLPLANT)-(ALL THESE WILL TELL THE WORLD DICTATOR THAT YOUR WITH HIM AND AGAINST KING JESUS-GOD)
18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast:(WORLD LEADER) for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.(6-6-6) A NUMBER SYSTEM (6006006)OR(60020202006)(SOME KIND OF NUMBER IMPLANTED IN THE MICROCHIP THAT TELLS THE WORLD DICTATOR AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER THAT YOU GIVE YOUR TOTAL ALLIGIENCE TO HIM AND NOT JESUS)(ITS AN ETERNAL DECISION YOU MAKE)(YOU CHOOSE YOUR OWN DESTINY)(YOU TAKE THE DICTATORS NAME OR NUMBER UNDER YOUR SKIN,YOUR DOOMED TO THE LAKE OF FIRE AND TORMENTS FOREVER,NEVER ENDING MEANT ONLY FOR SATAN AND HIS ANGELS,NOT HUMAN BEINGS).OR YOU REFUSE THE MICROCHIP IMPLANT AND GO ON THE SIDE OF KING JESUS AND RULE FOREVER WITH HIM ON EARTH.YOU CHOOSE,ITS YOUR DECISION.

ERIN BURNETT OUT FRONT
http://outfront.blogs.cnn.com/
http://outfront.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/07/is-37-the-magic-number-in-this-fiscal-cliff-debate/
BILL GROSS PIMCO
http://www.pimco.com/en/experts/pages/billgross.aspx
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-ultimate-fiscal-cliff-co-pilot-bill-gross-qrcQnMaLS5~yso1QYheZMA.html

BILL GROSS WAS ON ERIN BURNETTS OUT FRONT TONIGHT.AND HE SAID THE $4 TRILLION FISCAL CLIFF IS NOTHING.THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO GET $16 TRILLION THE TRUE AMOUNT TO GET THE GOVERNMENT UNDER CONTROL.ERIN MENTIONED BILL LENDS MONEY TO THE GOVERNMENT.SO YOU MIGHT AS WELL SAY BILL GROSS OWNS AMERICA ,NOT THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT.SINCE HE LENDS OBAMAS ADMINISTRATION DOE TO PAY THE BILLS.BILL ALSO SAID.THESE NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE DONE IN A COUPLE OF YEARS AGAIN SINCE THE TRUE AMOUNT NEEDED IS $16 TRILLION.NOT JUST $4 TRILLION LIKE THE DEM AND GOP ARE FIGHTING OVER CURRENTLY.ITS ONLY 1/4 OF THE $16 TRILLION OBAMA HAS TO MAKE UP IN TAXES AND CUTS.THIS IS JUST ANOTHER DISTRACTION FOR THE AMERICAN CITIZENS.SURE A SERIOUS ONE BUT ITS ONLY 1/4 THERE FIGHTING ABOUT.INSTEAD OF THE $12 TRILLION THEY WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH.

  • The U.S. has federal debt/GDP less than 100%, Aaa/AA+ credit ratings, and the benefit of being the world’s reserve currency.
  • Studies by the CBO, IMF and BIS (when averaged) suggest that we need to cut spending or raise taxes by 11% of GDP and rather quickly over the next five to 10 years. 
  • Unless we begin to close this gap, then the inevitable result will be that our debt/GDP ratio will continue to rise, the Fed would print money to pay for the deficiency, inflation would follow, and the dollar would inevitably decline.Bill Gross 
  • http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Damages.aspx 

Bill Gross: New Normal is here to stay

December 4, 2012: 12:25 PM ET


The fiscal cliff may be the biggest short-term threat for the market, but there are even scarier problems to worry about, according to Pimco chief investment strategist Bill Gross.In his latest letter to investors, posted online Tuesday, Gross outlines the long-term challenges facing the U.S economy and lists his "picks and pans" for investors operating in the so-called New Normal.The New Normal, a term made famous by Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian in the wake of the financial crisis, is characterized by sluggish economic growth of about 2% in the United States.Gross warns that things could get even worse if policymakers cannot resolve the "structural headwinds" facing the U.S. economy.They include some familiar concerns, such as America's unsustainable debts and the nation's aging population. But there are other things that keep the Bond King awake at night, including the waning benefits of globalization and the detrimental effects of technology.

Related: What to expect for the economy in 2013

Globalization, which helped drive the global economy by unlocking consumer demand in China and other emerging markets, may have run its course, according to Gross."Is it any wonder that markets now move up or down as much on the basis of policy changes coming out of China as opposed to the U.S. or Euroland?" he writes. "If China and the accompanying benefits of globalization slow, so too may developed economy growth rates."Meanwhile, the explosion of new technology in recent years has also helped power the global economy, but Gross warns that "it has its shady side.""In the past decade, machines and robotics have rather silently replaced humans, as the U.S. and other advanced economies have sought to counter the influence of cheap Asian labor," writes Gross.As evidence, Gross cites a recent MIT study that he says "affirmed that workers are losing the race against the machine."In this brave new world, Gross sees unemployment remaining stubbornly high as workers displaced by "the machine" struggle to reenter the workforce.
"Technology may be leading to slower, not faster economic growth despite its productive benefits," he writes.
Gross acknowledges that these trends may be offset by "positive thrusts," including the possibility of America becoming energy independent, thanks to cheap natural gas, and a burgeoning rebound in the housing market.
Given the structural challenges facing the U.S. economy, Gross recommends investments that will benefit in an environment of slow growth and efforts by central banks to stimulate activity.
Gross's list of "picks and pans":
Picks
Commodities like oil and gold
U.S. inflation-protected bonds
High-quality municipal bonds
Non-dollar emerging market stocks
Pans
Long-dated developed-country bonds in the U.S., U.K. and Germany
High-yield bonds
Financial stocks of banks and insurance companies 

Bill Gross Latest Monthly Outlook: "We May Need At Least A Decade For The Healing"

Tyler Durden's picture


Bill Gross' latest monthly missive begins with some political commentary on the latest presidential election, pointing out the obvious: after the euphoria comes the hangover, completely irrelevant of what happens to the Fiscal Cliff: 'whoever succeeds President Obama, the next four years will likely face structural economic headwinds that will frustrate the American public. “Happy days are here again” was the refrain of FDR in the Depression, but the theme song from 2012 and beyond may more closely resemble Strawberry Fields Forever, as Lennon laments “It’s getting hard to be someone but it all works out.” Why is it so hard to be someone these days, to pay for college, get a good-paying job and retire comfortably? That really was the economic question of the 2012 election towards which very few specifics were applied from either side. “There’s a better life out there for us,” Governor Romney bellowed to a crowd of thousands in Des Moines, Iowa just days before the election, but in truth he never told us how we were going to achieve it or, importantly, why we weren’t realizing it in the first place. The president’s political mantra of “Forward” was even more vague."
And while political campaigns were just that, the truth is that nobody has the trump card to a perfect quadrangle of problems which will mire the US economy for years to come, among which i) debt/deleveraging; ii) globalization, iii) technology, and iv) demographics. Gross' outlook is thus hardly as optimistic as all those sellside reports we have been drowned by in the past 2 weeks, hoping to stir the animal spirits one more time: 'We may need at least a decade for the healing.... it is getting harder to maintain the economic growth that investors have become accustomed to. The New Normal, like Strawberry Fields will “take you down” and lower your expectation of future asset returns. It may not last “forever” but it will be with us for a long, long time." Sad: looks like it won't be different this time after all...
From PIMCO
Strawberry Fields – Forever?

You didn't build that ..........     332
I built that .......................      206
Well, I guess that settles it: you didn’t build that after all. Or maybe you did, but not all of it. Or maybe like the convoluted John Lennon above “you think you know a yes, but it’s all wrong. That is you think you disagree.” Whatever. Rather than an economic mandate, November’s election was more of social commentary on the Republicans’ habit of living with eyes closed. Their positions on what Conan O’Brien labeled “female body parts” – immigration, gay rights and student loans – proved to be big losers, and they will have to amend rather than defend those views if they expect to compete in 2016. I suspect they will. Political parties are living social organisms that mutate in order to survive. We will see straight talking Chris Christie or Hispanic flavored Marco Rubio leading the Republican charge four years from now versus a reenergized Hillary Clinton. It should be quite a show with a “No Country for Old (White) Men” caste to it.
But whoever succeeds President Obama, the next four years will likely face structural economic headwinds that will frustrate the American public. “Happy days are here again” was the refrain of FDR in the Depression, but the theme song from 2012 and beyond may more closely resemble Strawberry Fields Forever, as Lennon laments “It’s getting hard to be someone but it all works out.” Why is it so hard to be someone these days, to pay for college, get a good-paying job and retire comfortably? That really was the economic question of the 2012 election towards which very few specifics were applied from either side. “There’s a better life out there for us,” Governor Romney bellowed to a crowd of thousands in Des Moines, Iowa just days before the election, but in truth he never told us how we were going to achieve it or, importantly, why we weren’t realizing it in the first place. The president’s political mantra of “Forward” was even more vague.
 
Their words were mum if only because the real cause of slower economic growth lies hidden in a number of structural as opposed to cyclical headwinds that may be hard to reverse. While there are growth potions that undoubtedly can reduce the fever, there may be no miracle policy drugs this time around to provide the inevitable cures of prior decades. These structural headwinds cannot just be wished away as we move “forward” whether it be to the right, the left or dead center. Last month in a major policy speech at the New York Economic Club, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke concurred that the U.S. economy’s growth potential had been reduced “at least for a time.” He in effect confirmed PIMCO’s New Normal which has been in place for three years now, laying the blame in part on the financial crisis, diminished productivity gains, and investment uncertainty due to the near-term fiscal cliff. We do not disagree. However, there are numerous other structural headwinds that may reduce real growth even below the New Normal 2% rate that Bernanke has just confirmed, not only in the U.S. but in developed economies everywhere.
 
They are:
 
1) Debt/Delevering
Developed global economies have too much debt – pure and simple – and as we attempt to resolve the dilemma, the resultant austerity should lower real growth for years to come. There are those that believe in the “Brylcreem” approach to budget balancing – “a little dab‘ll do ya.” Just knock a few percentage points off the deficit/GDP ratio, they claim, and the private sector will miraculously reappear to fill the gap. No such luck after 2–3 years of austerity in Euroland, however. Most of those countries are mired in recession and/or depression. Political leaders there should have studied the historical evidence presented by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff in a critically important paper titled, “Growth in a Time of Debt.” They conclude that for the past 200 years, once a country exceeded a 90% debt/GDP ratio, economic growth slowed by nearly 2% for both developed and developing nations for an average duration of nearly a decade. Their work displayed below in Chart 1 shows the result in the United States from 1790–2009. The average annual U.S. GDP rate growth, while clearly influenced by the Great Depression, was -1.8% once the 90% barrier was exceeded. The U.S., by the way, is now at a 100% debt/GDP ratio on the basis of the authors’ standard measuring yardstick. (Note as well the 5½% average inflation rate during the same periods.)

ALLTIME