2006 RISKS

Story 1-Carribean Hurricanes 2006. Story 2-Mudslide map. Story 3 Results of Kasmir Quake last year.

Up to 10 Caribbean Hurricanes Predicted for 2006

The bad news: U.S. climate experts just announced that they expect 8-10 hurricanes during the 2006 Caribbean hurricane season, including 4-6 major storms of Category 3 or higher (with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more). The good news: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association is not expecting 2006 to be as wild as the 2005 season, when the Caribbean saw a record-breaking 28 tropical storms and 15 hurricanes. Experts based their predictions on the fact that Caribbean ocean waters are not as warm this year as they were last year: warm ocean water fuels the creation of hurricanes. The average Caribbean hurricane season has 11 hurricanes, most of which never hit land in the region. For more information on hurricanes and other weather in the Caribbean, see my Caribbean Weather Guide.

Mudslide map puts 254 districts at risk

A map of the areas that are prone to landslides or mudslides being developed by the Mineral Resources Department has shown 254 districts comprising 2,371 villages are vulnerable. The director of the department's Geology Office, Lerdsin Raksasakulwong, said yesterday Bangkok faced flooding this year that could be every bit as severe as the devastation that hit the capital 70 years ago.

Lerdsin, an expert in soil, said the map showed areas in 51 provinces were at risk over three levels. Areas coloured red, yellow and green could experience landslides following 100 millimetres, 200mm and 300mm of rain, respectively, he said. Lerdsin said people could get useful information at the website http://www.dmr.go.th/. Meanwhile, the Meteorological Department's website, http://www.tmd.go.th/, which had been warning about the El Nino and La Nina effects since January, was now saying that a mild La Nina effect had already occurred.

Thanawat Jarupongsakul, a climate-change expert from Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Science said the floods in Uttaradit were a result of changes in global climate, which are directly related to global warming. La Nina would cause more rains in Thailand and neighbouring countries, he said. With typhoons increasing by 10-20 per cent and becoming more severe, serious floods were likely in every part of the country from July to October, Thanawat said. Bangkok was at high risk of severe flooding similar to 1942 and 1953 as typhoons might come directly into the Gulf of Thailand.

Thanawat warned of diseases arriving with the climate change such as mutated bacteria. Epidemic diseases could spread and extinct diseases could reappear because of more rains.

Quake-hit Kashmiris face poor crop, bad diet By Abu Arqam Naqash Thu May 25, 1:21 AM

ET LAMNIAN, Pakistan (Reuters) - Kashmiri villager Jamal Din Chaudry lost his dairy cow and his bullocks in last year's earthquake, and now can only count his blessings as he prepares to sow maize on the terraced mountainside. When the quake hit, I thought life would never return to normal here," said the 56-year-old farmer as he surveyed his small plot and the makeshift tin-roofed dwelling partially built from the rubble of his ruined two-story home. He was lucky. None of his family perished in the quake that killed 73,000 on October 8, instead they were among 3 million Kashmiris made destitute by the disaster.

While nature's seasons may have brought some sense of normality back to Chaudry's life, without bullocks he must plow the earth himself, and he must depend on handouts in the form of seed and food in order to get by. He lives in Lamnian, a small hamlet near the Leepa valley, some 60 km (40 miles) southeast of Muzaffarabad, the ruined capital of Pakistani Kashmir, and 2,000 meters up in the hills. Lower down the mountains, Mohammad Yaqub and his son Mohammad weeded a field in Sawaan village, 15 km (nine miles) south of Muzaffarabad. All their family survived the quake, but they too are living in a temporary shelter.

Last year's maize crop had ripened by the time the quake struck, and thanks to a concerted effort to deliver seed and fertilizer they now have a wheat crop in hand. God willing, within two weeks our wheat crop will be ready for harvesting," said Yaqub, 65. He's planning to sow maize in the first week of June, but there's a problem. He has no seed. Typically, a Kashmiri villager in these parts has only about one hectare of land, of which 70 percent may be turned over to grains such as rice, maize and wheat, depending on soil quality. It is subsistence farming, and while people have produced enough to fill their stomachs it was poor fare, even when people had a dairy cow to provide them with milk, butter and yogurt.

SICKLY DIET

At the best of times, before the earthquake, although they weren't going hungry, about 60 percent of people living in elevated areas such as Lamnian suffered from some form of malnutrition due to a poorly balanced diet, lacking minerals and vitamins, which resulted in some permanent damage. Ten percent suffered from acute malnutrition, leading to stunted growth in children and wasting. Adolescent girls aren't menstruating, maternal mortality is high, and conditions such as goiter, a thyroid condition that causes swallowing and breathing problems, and night blindness are common.

Back in Islamabad, Michael Jones, the UN World Food Programme's representative in Pakistan, worries how to help people such as Chaudry and Yaqub, who will otherwise face more misery with each passing season. The harvest in July will be small, it won't be successful," he says, scoffing at the glib opinions of some officials that the people in the hills will have enough to subsist on because there is a crop in the ground. Try to eat corn off the cob when it's still green, it doesn't just taste bitter, it's toxic too.

The loss of livestock means yields will suffer, as farmers lack manure to fertilize their crops. Jones is concerned with preparing for the main crop, which will be harvested in November, while also ensuring that people living in elevated areas such as Lamnian get adequate food to avoid mounting health problems due to their terrible diet. A lot of them don't have seed and fertilizers they require to plant and harvest in July," he said, ruing the time lost navigating the bureaucracy of the government's relief authority.

Jones cannot say how many quake victims could be at risk of malnutrition in the months ahead, but some WFP programs concentrated in the elevated areas have a target population of around half a million people. These people live in isolated communities, and while the government may have declared main roads open, their villages remain inaccessible by road, and getting 4,000 km of secondary roads cleared is a priority for Jones. Getting supplies to the likes of Chaudry is about to become a lot more difficult. Donors trying to balance resources, costs and needs have said they won't pay for the helicopter fleet beyond the end of the month.