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1 COR 15:23-JESUS THE FIRST FRUITS-CHRISTIANS RAPTURED TO JESUS-FIRST FRUITS OF THE SPIRIT-23 But every man in his own order: Christ the firstfruits; afterward they that are Christ’s at his coming.ROMANS 8:23 And not only they, but ourselves also, which have the firstfruits of the Spirit, even we ourselves groan within ourselves, waiting for the adoption, to wit, the redemption of our body.(THE PRE-TRIB RAPTURE)
Texas Supreme Court sides with cheerleaders on 'Bible banners'-Reuters By Jon Herskovitz-January 29, 2016 5:36 PM-YAHOONEWS
AUSTIN, Texas (Reuters) - The Texas Supreme Court on Friday sided with a group of school cheerleaders and their parents who are seeking to have a lower court give them the right to put religious messages and biblical quotes on banners at football games.The decision did not grant the right to display the messages but sent the case to an appeals court that had previously said there was no need to rule because the school district already allowed the messages on the so-called "Bible banners."The banners have been displayed as football teams took to the field in the east Texas town of Kountze."The District no longer prohibits the cheerleaders from displaying religious signs or messages on banners at school-sponsored events. But that change hardly makes 'absolutely clear' that the District will not reverse itself after this litigation is concluded," the high court said.The case started about three years ago and became a focal point at the time in the debate over a school's role in promoting religion. The Supreme Court did not decide if the Bible banners should be considered private speech or government speech.The Republican leaders of Texas, who have stood by the cheerleaders, saw the court's decision as a victory for religious freedom while the group that brought the initial complaint over the banners to the school district saw the court's decision as narrow and limited."I’m pleased the Texas Supreme Court has ensured that the Kountze cheerleaders will be able to continue defending their right to express their faith – the most fundamental of American freedoms," Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement.The Freedom From Religion Foundation, which brought the complaint, said it sees the banners as violating the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution regarding government prohibitions on establishing religion."They (the banners) signal to students and members of the community who are non-Christian that they are outsiders," said Patrick Elliott, a lawyer with the foundation.(Reporting by Jon Herskovitz; Editing by Tom Brown)
Trump Overtakes Cruz in Final Iowa Poll Before Caucuses-John McCormick-January 30, 2016 — 6:45 PM EST-BLOOMBERG
Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa's caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday evening's turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.The findings before the first ballots are cast in the 2016 presidential nomination race shows Trump with the support of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by 23 percent for the Texas senator and 15 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.The billionaire real estate mogul leads Cruz among those who say they definitely plan to attend, 30 percent to 26 percent. With the less committed—those who say they'll probably attend—Trump also beats Cruz, 27 percent to 21 percent.“Trump is leading with both the inner core of the caucus universe and the fringe—that’s what any candidate would want," said longtime Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey for the news organizations. The poll's findings are based on 47 percent of those likely to attend considering themselves evangelical or born again Christians. When re-weighted as a scenario test for the higher evangelical turnout seen in 2012 entrance polls, the race is closer, with 26 percent for Trump and 25 percent for Cruz.A Trump victory could significantly boost his chances of winning his party's nomination, while a second-place finish for Cruz would be a major setback for a candidate who has invested heavily in Iowa and enjoyed strong support from evangelical Christians who form a large part of the state’s electorate. Trump is dominating in polling in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the two states that follow Iowa in the nomination calendar.Just two days before the first-in-the-nation caucuses, the race remains fluid, even after hundreds of campaign stops in Iowa, tens of millions of dollars of advertising and seven nationally televised debates.More than half—55 percent—say their mind is made up, while 45 percent say they either don't have a first-choice candidate or could still be persuaded to pick someone else. In the final Iowa Poll before the 2012 Republican caucuses, 51 percent say they had their minds made up.Trump's advantage over Cruz is a reversal of the race in the previous Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in early January, when he trailed 25 percent to 22 percent.Under near constant attack from Trump since December, Cruz’s favorability rating has also dropped—by 11 points to 65 percent. Trump is viewed favorably by 50 percent, a four-point drop since the prior poll and the lowest of the top four candidates. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Rubio are in the low 70s.The crowded Republican field appears to be working against Cruz. If the race for the nomination eventually became a two-person race between Trump and Cruz, 53 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers would pick Cruz, while 35 percent would go with Trump."There's an appreciation for Cruz even among people who are voting in a different way," said Selzer, who is widely considered the state's top pollster. "For Trump, he might be able to win, in part because the field is as big as it is."In fourth place is Carson, who is backed by 10 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers, followed by U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky at 5 percent. No other candidate recorded above 3 percent.At the time of his departure from the race in September, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker called on other candidates to also drop out, so that an establishment candidate could emerge with enough support to challenge Trump. Yet the combined support of candidates in that lane—Rubio, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Ohio Governor John Kasich and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie—is still less than Trump or Cruz. Support for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate, remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the survey, his support dropped the last two days.Supporters of Trump are the most decided among the top three candidates, with 71 percent saying their mind is made up, compared to 61 percent for Cruz and 47 percent for Rubio. Trump also leads with most demographic groups measured by the poll, including those without college degrees, moderates and Catholics.The poll's findings suggest Trump is inspiring new interest in the Republican caucuses: 40 percent of those in the survey say they'll be attending for the first time, the highest number recorded by the survey this election cycle. The last Iowa Poll before the 2012 caucuses showed 27 percent first-time caucus-goers.Nearly one-third of Cruz’s supporters say they’d be attending for the first time, compared to half of Trump's supporters who say they'll be going for the first time, suggesting he has a greater challenge in turning out his supporters because veteran caucus-goers tend to be more reliable.Cruz's drop from an Iowa Poll in early December—when he led the field at 31 percent—reflects a falloff in support across multiple demographic groups, including people who define themselves primarily as evangelical conservatives, where his backing dropped 12 percentage points. His support among the youngest and oldest also dropped and he lost 14 points in the Third Congressional District that includes parts of central and southwest Iowa, including the state capitol of Des Moines.The poll suggests there could be growing Trump fatigue as well in a state he's visited often in recent months. Almost half of those likely to attend the Republican caucuses say they've become less comfortable with the idea of him winning the nomination, while 49 percent say that of his prospects of representing the U.S. to the rest of the world and 45 percent on his possibility of winning the presidency.Likely caucus-goers are becoming more comfortable, meanwhile, with the prospects of Cruz doing those things, with roughly half saying they've moved that direction.On candidate traits tested, Trump won on almost every question. He beats Cruz on being most feared by U.S. enemies (50 percent to 21 percent), potential to bring about needed change (37 percent to 21 percent), being a strong leader (32 percent to 23 percent), prospects for winning a general election (35 percent to 24 percent) and keeping "your family safest" (28 percent to 24 percent).Cruz beats Trump on having the "greatest depth of knowledge and experience" (26 percent to 17 percent), as well as being respected by leaders of friendly countries (20 percent to 16 percent).Two dramatic moves in the final weeks of the Iowa race appeared to make little difference. A plurality—46 percent—say they didn't care that Trump skipped the debate in Des Moines this week, while Iowa Governor Terry Branstad’s plea to defeat Cruz failed to sway 77 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers.In a test of some other lines of attack that have been used against Cruz and Trump, the poll found varying strength.Three-quarters of likely Republican caucus-goers say they're not bothered by the fact that Cruz had dual citizenship with Canada until recently, while almost two-thirds don't care that Cruz's personality is off-putting to some, including Senate colleagues from both parties.A slim majority of 54 percent say they're bothered that Cruz failed to fully disclose up to $1 million in loans from Wall Street banks during his 2012 Senate run. Less than half—43 percent—were bothered by Cruz's position on the Renewable Fuel Standard.Trump’s support for the use of eminent domain to take, in exchange for compensation, private property for public or private projects, was a concern for 60 percent of those polled. Nearly as many—56 percent—are bothered that in the past he supported abortion rights and said he wouldn't ban late-term abortions.More than six in 10 aren't bothered by questions about Trump’s familiarity with the Bible, while almost two-thirds aren't bothered that some of his business have filed for bankruptcy.With former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg considering an independent presidential bid, the poll tested his favorability ratings among likely Republican and Democratic caucus-goers.The findings highlight some of the hurdles facing Bloomberg should he decide to enter the race. The former mayor isn't well known in the state among the most motivated voters in both parties, with 41 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers and 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers not knowing him well enough to share an opinion.For those who do have an opinion, 50 percent of Republican caucus-goers have an unfavorable view, versus just 9 percent who hold a favorable opinion. Among those likely to attend the Democratic caucuses, that split was 26 percent unfavorable to 17 percent favorable.Bloomberg was a three-term mayor of New York, twice as a Republican and finally as an independent, and is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News.The survey, conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of West Des Moines, Iowa, included 602 likely Republican caucus participants and 602 likely Democratic caucus participants. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Iowa kicks off 2016 U.S. presidential race with caucus tradition-Reuters By John Whitesides-JAN 31,16-YAHOONEWS
DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - The long and sometimes arcane ritual of electing the next U.S. president begins on Monday in more than 1,100 schools, churches and libraries across Iowa, a state that wields political influence far greater than its small size.After more than a year of up-close and personal evaluation of the candidates, Iowans will gather with their neighbors on what promises to be a cold wintry night to kick off the state-by-state process of picking the Republican and Democratic nominees for the Nov. 8 presidential election.The starring opening-night role of the largely rural Midwestern state in the presidential drama, now four decades old, is a source of pride for Iowa voters, who spend months evaluating the candidates, looking them in the eye and asking questions."Iowans see it as a great privilege and a great gift. They take their role very seriously," said Tom Henderson, chairman of the Democratic Party in Polk County, home to Iowa's biggest city, Des Moines.The caucuses will begin on Monday at 7 p.m. CST, and results are expected within two or three hours. Most gatherings will be in schools, community centers or other public locations, although at least two Republican caucuses will be in private homes and one Democratic caucus will be held at an equestrian center.Turnout varies by community, with up to 1,000 people typically gathering in cities like Des Moines, while a few dozen or less may gather in more sparsely populated areas.The state Republican and Democratic parties run their caucuses separately, although in some areas they hold them in different parts of the same building. Republicans will have more than 800 caucus sites, and Democrats will have about 1,100.The two parties also have different rules. Iowa Democrats gather in groups by candidate preference in a public display of support, a tradition that can allow for shifts back and forth. If a candidate does not reach the threshold of support of 15 percent of voters in a caucus needed to be considered viable, that candidates' supporters are released to back another contender, leading to another round of persuasion.Republicans are more straightforward. They write their vote privately on a sheet of paper that is collected and counted at the site by caucus officials. A surrogate or volunteer from each campaign may speak to their neighbors in a last-ditch plea for support, adding to the uncertainty going into the process.Neither party is offering voter turnout estimates this year, although many Iowans predict the Republicans will surpass the 121,503 who turned out in 2012. In the last contested Democratic caucus, in 2008, excitement over Barack Obama's candidacy spurred a record turnout of 239,872.Iowa, the 30th most populated state, and tiny New Hampshire, which holds the second nominating contest on Feb. 9, have traditionally served as early filters to winnow out the losers and elevate the top contenders for later contests.But Iowa Republicans recently have had a spotty record at backing the ultimate presidential nominees. Neither the Republican winner in 2008, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, nor the winner in 2012, former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, managed to win the party nomination.Iowa Democrats did back the party's last two nominees: John Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008, which ultimately launched Obama's drive to the White House.(Editing by Leslie Adler)
Trump, Clinton Lead in Final Iowa Poll-Time By Tessa Berenson / Des Moines, Iowa-JAN 31,16-YAHOONEWS
On the Republican side in the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll released Saturday evening, Trump came in with 28% support, up 6% from early January.He's followed in the Republican field by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 23%, down 2% from early January, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio comes in third with 15%, up 3% from early January.Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson received 10% support and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul received 5%; all other Republican candidates received less than 5% support.There are reasons for Trump to feel secure at the top: his supporters are the most confident among the top three candidates, with 71% saying they’ve decided, compared to 61% for Cruz and 47% for Rubio.But there’s still some room for change. Rubio is climbing, and poll results show that he’s the top second choice pick of likely voters. And Cruz’s favorability rating has dropped by eleven points, to 65%. Trump's biggest weaknesses are his support for eminent domain, which worried 60% of the respondents, and his previous support of abortion rights, which bothered 56% of respondents.The Democratic side remained relatively stable from the early January poll, locked in a tight race within the margin of error for former Secretary of State Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Clinton received 45% support in the new poll, up 3%, but Sanders received 42%, up 2%. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley dropped one percentage point down to 3%.Although the race between Clinton and Sanders is tight, Clinton is wining among Democrats who said they will definitely caucus, whereas Sanders is winning among those who said they will probably caucus. And 83% of Clinton supporters said they have made up their minds. This could give Clinton an edge Monday night, if Sanders can't successfully boost turnout.Iowa polls can be notoriously unreliable, due to the complication of the caucus process and the unreliability of turnout. But J. Ann Selzer, who ran the poll, has conducted polling on the Iowa caucuses since 1988, and has an impressive track record.According to Politico, Selzer was the only candidate to predict the order of the Democratic candidates in 2004, she accurately predicted the surge of first-time caucus attendees in 2008, and she was one of the only pollsters to see the rise of Rick Santorum in 2012.This poll was conducted of 602 likely GOP caucus-goers and 602 likely Democratic caucus-goers from January 26-29, and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Bernie, Hillary supporters to duke it out over tiny O’Malley camp-Liz Goodwin-January 30, 2016-YAHOONEWS
DES MOINES, Iowa — On Monday night, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley’s tiny band of supporters will be the center of attention in Iowa precincts across the state.O’Malley had only 3 percent support in the final Des Moines Register-Bloomberg Politics poll, but because of the Byzantine rules of the Democratic caucusing process, his supporters could end up deciding the incredibly close race between Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders.In each of the state’s 1,681 caucusing locations, a candidate must get 15 percent of voters to be considered viable during an initial count that’s taken at the beginning of the evening. O’Malley isn’t expected to reach that threshold in the vast majority of precincts, which means his supporters will be up for grabs — they must either choose another candidate, or their vote will not count.Wooing voters who back candidates that fail to meet the threshold has made a big difference in elections in the state in the past: John Edwards finished a surprise second in 2004 thanks in part to Dennis Kucinich’s supporters defecting to him. And Bill Richardson’s backers joined Barack Obama’s camp in 2008.The Clinton campaign is arming its precinct captains with special software to help them figure out how to keep O’Malley supporters from defecting to Sanders’ camp, BuzzFeed News reported Saturday. Meanwhile, Sanders’ precinct captains are being told to beef up on their O’Malley knowledge so they can entice his fans over to their side and to offer them delegates for the county convention as inducement.“You might have to cut a deal,” said Mitch Henry, a Democratic activist who was leading a small training for Sanders precinct captains Saturday afternoon in a coffee shop in Des Moines. “Let’s say in this case you have 10 O’Malley supporters. You would maybe offer them a delegate. You could say to them, ‘OK, you 10 come over, we give you a delegate.’”This is a largely symbolic concession — the O’Malley supporters’ votes would go to Sanders in the caucus, but in the county conventions later on, their delegate could switch back to supporting O’Malley.If horse-trading fails, there’s always the power of persuasion.“I would definitely beef up on the O’Malley top 5 issues, see what they are,” Henry told the precinct captains. Henry, who supported Sanders until a little more than a month ago, added that he believes most O’Malley supporters’ second choice is Sanders.“Talking to a lot of O’Malley supporters, there are a lot of ways Bernie lines up on the issues. A lot of them will say the environment [is their top concern], and Bernie is clearly superior to Hillary on the environment,” said Bri Steirer, a precinct captain for the Drake University area.But the Sanders plan to convince O’Malley fans with delegates and issues may not be able to compete with Clinton’s scheme. The Clinton campaign has trained its precinct captains to use software that calculates when it benefits Clinton to give O’Malley supporters a few of their votes in order to block them from defecting to Sanders. That means Clinton supporters would help O’Malley become a viable candidate in precincts where she would still carry the day.A Sanders precinct captain, Darlene Lawler, asked Henry about whether Bernie supporters should be trying to do the same thing — helping O’Malley become viable in cases where it would help Bernie.“I would not give them three or four people to be viable because you just don’t know what could happen,” Henry said, adding that the “math” can get complicated as the night goes on, and it’s easy to make a mistake.Clinton’s campaign has an app that will help caucus leaders calculate the risks, however, which means they don’t have to worry about mistakes.
Hillary Clinton is making an emotional gun control pitch to Iowa voters-Hunter Walker-National Correspondent-January 30, 2016-YAHOONEWS
DES MOINES, Iowa — Hillary Clinton wants Iowa voters to consider gun control when they caucus in two days.At her event on Saturday, Clinton was joined by the gun control activists Mark Kelly and Gabby Giffords. Emotions ran high as Giffords, who was wounded in a mass shooting and still struggles to speak, suggested Clinton is the best candidate to “stand up to the gun lobby.” For her part, Clinton, who is normally far more subdued even when making a forceful point,, raised her voice in anger and incredulousness as she argued America’s gun laws must change.“When I’ve traveled around Iowa the last couple of months, I have heard about … what happens when children, young children, toddlers, kids in elementary school find that loaded gun in the closet or under the bed,” Clinton said. “I’ve heard the stories. I’ve seen the news reports about the ones who are killed … What is wrong with us? How can we continue?”Clinton was introduced at the event by her daughter, Chelsea, who said she “couldn’t imagine a stronger president to keep us safe.” After Chelsea spoke, Kelly, an astronaut, took the stage. Kelly said he and his wife believe “there is only one candidate that is willing to take on the tough fights.” He also alluded to the struggle that Giffords, a former congresswoman, has gone through in the five years since she was shot.“Gabby served for about two-and-a-half years in Congress then she was injured,” Kelly said. “You know, it’s tough for me to talk about this, but often one of the last things Gabby will say to me before she gets in the car to go to an appointment to do some grueling physical therapy, speech therapy, she’ll say, ‘Fight, fight, fight.’ She doesn’t give up.”Afterwards, Giffords made a brief statement.“Speaking is hard for me,"Giffords said. "But January, come January, I want to say these two words: Madame President.”Her words came slowly.“Hillary is tough. Hillary is courageous,” said Giffords. “In the White House she will stand up to the gun lobby. That’s why I’m voting for Hillary.”Former U.S. Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) and her husband U.S. Navy captain Mark Kelly embrace democratic presidential candidate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during a “get out the caucus” event at Iowa State University on January 30, 2016 in Ames, Iowa. Though she didn’t mention his name, the elephant in the room was clearly Clinton’s top rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.). Painting Sanders as not being a strong supporter of gun control has been one of the main attacks from the Clinton campaign during their primary fight.Clinton said her gun control policies would be “consistent with the Constitution” and claimed she is regularly approached by gun owners and hunters who agree with her stance.“I agree with President Obama. The steps that he announced are ones that i fully endorse, executive action, put more resources into the work of doing the background checks, going after the gun dealers who are so irresponsible,” Clinton said. “But none of it will stick if it’s not a voting issue and, as you go to caucus Monday night, please think about this.”
AUSTIN, Texas (Reuters) - The Texas Supreme Court on Friday sided with a group of school cheerleaders and their parents who are seeking to have a lower court give them the right to put religious messages and biblical quotes on banners at football games.The decision did not grant the right to display the messages but sent the case to an appeals court that had previously said there was no need to rule because the school district already allowed the messages on the so-called "Bible banners."The banners have been displayed as football teams took to the field in the east Texas town of Kountze."The District no longer prohibits the cheerleaders from displaying religious signs or messages on banners at school-sponsored events. But that change hardly makes 'absolutely clear' that the District will not reverse itself after this litigation is concluded," the high court said.The case started about three years ago and became a focal point at the time in the debate over a school's role in promoting religion. The Supreme Court did not decide if the Bible banners should be considered private speech or government speech.The Republican leaders of Texas, who have stood by the cheerleaders, saw the court's decision as a victory for religious freedom while the group that brought the initial complaint over the banners to the school district saw the court's decision as narrow and limited."I’m pleased the Texas Supreme Court has ensured that the Kountze cheerleaders will be able to continue defending their right to express their faith – the most fundamental of American freedoms," Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement.The Freedom From Religion Foundation, which brought the complaint, said it sees the banners as violating the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution regarding government prohibitions on establishing religion."They (the banners) signal to students and members of the community who are non-Christian that they are outsiders," said Patrick Elliott, a lawyer with the foundation.(Reporting by Jon Herskovitz; Editing by Tom Brown)
Trump Overtakes Cruz in Final Iowa Poll Before Caucuses-John McCormick-January 30, 2016 — 6:45 PM EST-BLOOMBERG
Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa's caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday evening's turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.The findings before the first ballots are cast in the 2016 presidential nomination race shows Trump with the support of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by 23 percent for the Texas senator and 15 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.The billionaire real estate mogul leads Cruz among those who say they definitely plan to attend, 30 percent to 26 percent. With the less committed—those who say they'll probably attend—Trump also beats Cruz, 27 percent to 21 percent.“Trump is leading with both the inner core of the caucus universe and the fringe—that’s what any candidate would want," said longtime Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey for the news organizations. The poll's findings are based on 47 percent of those likely to attend considering themselves evangelical or born again Christians. When re-weighted as a scenario test for the higher evangelical turnout seen in 2012 entrance polls, the race is closer, with 26 percent for Trump and 25 percent for Cruz.A Trump victory could significantly boost his chances of winning his party's nomination, while a second-place finish for Cruz would be a major setback for a candidate who has invested heavily in Iowa and enjoyed strong support from evangelical Christians who form a large part of the state’s electorate. Trump is dominating in polling in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the two states that follow Iowa in the nomination calendar.Just two days before the first-in-the-nation caucuses, the race remains fluid, even after hundreds of campaign stops in Iowa, tens of millions of dollars of advertising and seven nationally televised debates.More than half—55 percent—say their mind is made up, while 45 percent say they either don't have a first-choice candidate or could still be persuaded to pick someone else. In the final Iowa Poll before the 2012 Republican caucuses, 51 percent say they had their minds made up.Trump's advantage over Cruz is a reversal of the race in the previous Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in early January, when he trailed 25 percent to 22 percent.Under near constant attack from Trump since December, Cruz’s favorability rating has also dropped—by 11 points to 65 percent. Trump is viewed favorably by 50 percent, a four-point drop since the prior poll and the lowest of the top four candidates. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Rubio are in the low 70s.The crowded Republican field appears to be working against Cruz. If the race for the nomination eventually became a two-person race between Trump and Cruz, 53 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers would pick Cruz, while 35 percent would go with Trump."There's an appreciation for Cruz even among people who are voting in a different way," said Selzer, who is widely considered the state's top pollster. "For Trump, he might be able to win, in part because the field is as big as it is."In fourth place is Carson, who is backed by 10 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers, followed by U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky at 5 percent. No other candidate recorded above 3 percent.At the time of his departure from the race in September, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker called on other candidates to also drop out, so that an establishment candidate could emerge with enough support to challenge Trump. Yet the combined support of candidates in that lane—Rubio, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Ohio Governor John Kasich and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie—is still less than Trump or Cruz. Support for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate, remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the survey, his support dropped the last two days.Supporters of Trump are the most decided among the top three candidates, with 71 percent saying their mind is made up, compared to 61 percent for Cruz and 47 percent for Rubio. Trump also leads with most demographic groups measured by the poll, including those without college degrees, moderates and Catholics.The poll's findings suggest Trump is inspiring new interest in the Republican caucuses: 40 percent of those in the survey say they'll be attending for the first time, the highest number recorded by the survey this election cycle. The last Iowa Poll before the 2012 caucuses showed 27 percent first-time caucus-goers.Nearly one-third of Cruz’s supporters say they’d be attending for the first time, compared to half of Trump's supporters who say they'll be going for the first time, suggesting he has a greater challenge in turning out his supporters because veteran caucus-goers tend to be more reliable.Cruz's drop from an Iowa Poll in early December—when he led the field at 31 percent—reflects a falloff in support across multiple demographic groups, including people who define themselves primarily as evangelical conservatives, where his backing dropped 12 percentage points. His support among the youngest and oldest also dropped and he lost 14 points in the Third Congressional District that includes parts of central and southwest Iowa, including the state capitol of Des Moines.The poll suggests there could be growing Trump fatigue as well in a state he's visited often in recent months. Almost half of those likely to attend the Republican caucuses say they've become less comfortable with the idea of him winning the nomination, while 49 percent say that of his prospects of representing the U.S. to the rest of the world and 45 percent on his possibility of winning the presidency.Likely caucus-goers are becoming more comfortable, meanwhile, with the prospects of Cruz doing those things, with roughly half saying they've moved that direction.On candidate traits tested, Trump won on almost every question. He beats Cruz on being most feared by U.S. enemies (50 percent to 21 percent), potential to bring about needed change (37 percent to 21 percent), being a strong leader (32 percent to 23 percent), prospects for winning a general election (35 percent to 24 percent) and keeping "your family safest" (28 percent to 24 percent).Cruz beats Trump on having the "greatest depth of knowledge and experience" (26 percent to 17 percent), as well as being respected by leaders of friendly countries (20 percent to 16 percent).Two dramatic moves in the final weeks of the Iowa race appeared to make little difference. A plurality—46 percent—say they didn't care that Trump skipped the debate in Des Moines this week, while Iowa Governor Terry Branstad’s plea to defeat Cruz failed to sway 77 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers.In a test of some other lines of attack that have been used against Cruz and Trump, the poll found varying strength.Three-quarters of likely Republican caucus-goers say they're not bothered by the fact that Cruz had dual citizenship with Canada until recently, while almost two-thirds don't care that Cruz's personality is off-putting to some, including Senate colleagues from both parties.A slim majority of 54 percent say they're bothered that Cruz failed to fully disclose up to $1 million in loans from Wall Street banks during his 2012 Senate run. Less than half—43 percent—were bothered by Cruz's position on the Renewable Fuel Standard.Trump’s support for the use of eminent domain to take, in exchange for compensation, private property for public or private projects, was a concern for 60 percent of those polled. Nearly as many—56 percent—are bothered that in the past he supported abortion rights and said he wouldn't ban late-term abortions.More than six in 10 aren't bothered by questions about Trump’s familiarity with the Bible, while almost two-thirds aren't bothered that some of his business have filed for bankruptcy.With former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg considering an independent presidential bid, the poll tested his favorability ratings among likely Republican and Democratic caucus-goers.The findings highlight some of the hurdles facing Bloomberg should he decide to enter the race. The former mayor isn't well known in the state among the most motivated voters in both parties, with 41 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers and 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers not knowing him well enough to share an opinion.For those who do have an opinion, 50 percent of Republican caucus-goers have an unfavorable view, versus just 9 percent who hold a favorable opinion. Among those likely to attend the Democratic caucuses, that split was 26 percent unfavorable to 17 percent favorable.Bloomberg was a three-term mayor of New York, twice as a Republican and finally as an independent, and is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News.The survey, conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of West Des Moines, Iowa, included 602 likely Republican caucus participants and 602 likely Democratic caucus participants. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Iowa kicks off 2016 U.S. presidential race with caucus tradition-Reuters By John Whitesides-JAN 31,16-YAHOONEWS
DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - The long and sometimes arcane ritual of electing the next U.S. president begins on Monday in more than 1,100 schools, churches and libraries across Iowa, a state that wields political influence far greater than its small size.After more than a year of up-close and personal evaluation of the candidates, Iowans will gather with their neighbors on what promises to be a cold wintry night to kick off the state-by-state process of picking the Republican and Democratic nominees for the Nov. 8 presidential election.The starring opening-night role of the largely rural Midwestern state in the presidential drama, now four decades old, is a source of pride for Iowa voters, who spend months evaluating the candidates, looking them in the eye and asking questions."Iowans see it as a great privilege and a great gift. They take their role very seriously," said Tom Henderson, chairman of the Democratic Party in Polk County, home to Iowa's biggest city, Des Moines.The caucuses will begin on Monday at 7 p.m. CST, and results are expected within two or three hours. Most gatherings will be in schools, community centers or other public locations, although at least two Republican caucuses will be in private homes and one Democratic caucus will be held at an equestrian center.Turnout varies by community, with up to 1,000 people typically gathering in cities like Des Moines, while a few dozen or less may gather in more sparsely populated areas.The state Republican and Democratic parties run their caucuses separately, although in some areas they hold them in different parts of the same building. Republicans will have more than 800 caucus sites, and Democrats will have about 1,100.The two parties also have different rules. Iowa Democrats gather in groups by candidate preference in a public display of support, a tradition that can allow for shifts back and forth. If a candidate does not reach the threshold of support of 15 percent of voters in a caucus needed to be considered viable, that candidates' supporters are released to back another contender, leading to another round of persuasion.Republicans are more straightforward. They write their vote privately on a sheet of paper that is collected and counted at the site by caucus officials. A surrogate or volunteer from each campaign may speak to their neighbors in a last-ditch plea for support, adding to the uncertainty going into the process.Neither party is offering voter turnout estimates this year, although many Iowans predict the Republicans will surpass the 121,503 who turned out in 2012. In the last contested Democratic caucus, in 2008, excitement over Barack Obama's candidacy spurred a record turnout of 239,872.Iowa, the 30th most populated state, and tiny New Hampshire, which holds the second nominating contest on Feb. 9, have traditionally served as early filters to winnow out the losers and elevate the top contenders for later contests.But Iowa Republicans recently have had a spotty record at backing the ultimate presidential nominees. Neither the Republican winner in 2008, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, nor the winner in 2012, former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, managed to win the party nomination.Iowa Democrats did back the party's last two nominees: John Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008, which ultimately launched Obama's drive to the White House.(Editing by Leslie Adler)
Trump, Clinton Lead in Final Iowa Poll-Time By Tessa Berenson / Des Moines, Iowa-JAN 31,16-YAHOONEWS
On the Republican side in the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll released Saturday evening, Trump came in with 28% support, up 6% from early January.He's followed in the Republican field by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 23%, down 2% from early January, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio comes in third with 15%, up 3% from early January.Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson received 10% support and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul received 5%; all other Republican candidates received less than 5% support.There are reasons for Trump to feel secure at the top: his supporters are the most confident among the top three candidates, with 71% saying they’ve decided, compared to 61% for Cruz and 47% for Rubio.But there’s still some room for change. Rubio is climbing, and poll results show that he’s the top second choice pick of likely voters. And Cruz’s favorability rating has dropped by eleven points, to 65%. Trump's biggest weaknesses are his support for eminent domain, which worried 60% of the respondents, and his previous support of abortion rights, which bothered 56% of respondents.The Democratic side remained relatively stable from the early January poll, locked in a tight race within the margin of error for former Secretary of State Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Clinton received 45% support in the new poll, up 3%, but Sanders received 42%, up 2%. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley dropped one percentage point down to 3%.Although the race between Clinton and Sanders is tight, Clinton is wining among Democrats who said they will definitely caucus, whereas Sanders is winning among those who said they will probably caucus. And 83% of Clinton supporters said they have made up their minds. This could give Clinton an edge Monday night, if Sanders can't successfully boost turnout.Iowa polls can be notoriously unreliable, due to the complication of the caucus process and the unreliability of turnout. But J. Ann Selzer, who ran the poll, has conducted polling on the Iowa caucuses since 1988, and has an impressive track record.According to Politico, Selzer was the only candidate to predict the order of the Democratic candidates in 2004, she accurately predicted the surge of first-time caucus attendees in 2008, and she was one of the only pollsters to see the rise of Rick Santorum in 2012.This poll was conducted of 602 likely GOP caucus-goers and 602 likely Democratic caucus-goers from January 26-29, and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Bernie, Hillary supporters to duke it out over tiny O’Malley camp-Liz Goodwin-January 30, 2016-YAHOONEWS
DES MOINES, Iowa — On Monday night, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley’s tiny band of supporters will be the center of attention in Iowa precincts across the state.O’Malley had only 3 percent support in the final Des Moines Register-Bloomberg Politics poll, but because of the Byzantine rules of the Democratic caucusing process, his supporters could end up deciding the incredibly close race between Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders.In each of the state’s 1,681 caucusing locations, a candidate must get 15 percent of voters to be considered viable during an initial count that’s taken at the beginning of the evening. O’Malley isn’t expected to reach that threshold in the vast majority of precincts, which means his supporters will be up for grabs — they must either choose another candidate, or their vote will not count.Wooing voters who back candidates that fail to meet the threshold has made a big difference in elections in the state in the past: John Edwards finished a surprise second in 2004 thanks in part to Dennis Kucinich’s supporters defecting to him. And Bill Richardson’s backers joined Barack Obama’s camp in 2008.The Clinton campaign is arming its precinct captains with special software to help them figure out how to keep O’Malley supporters from defecting to Sanders’ camp, BuzzFeed News reported Saturday. Meanwhile, Sanders’ precinct captains are being told to beef up on their O’Malley knowledge so they can entice his fans over to their side and to offer them delegates for the county convention as inducement.“You might have to cut a deal,” said Mitch Henry, a Democratic activist who was leading a small training for Sanders precinct captains Saturday afternoon in a coffee shop in Des Moines. “Let’s say in this case you have 10 O’Malley supporters. You would maybe offer them a delegate. You could say to them, ‘OK, you 10 come over, we give you a delegate.’”This is a largely symbolic concession — the O’Malley supporters’ votes would go to Sanders in the caucus, but in the county conventions later on, their delegate could switch back to supporting O’Malley.If horse-trading fails, there’s always the power of persuasion.“I would definitely beef up on the O’Malley top 5 issues, see what they are,” Henry told the precinct captains. Henry, who supported Sanders until a little more than a month ago, added that he believes most O’Malley supporters’ second choice is Sanders.“Talking to a lot of O’Malley supporters, there are a lot of ways Bernie lines up on the issues. A lot of them will say the environment [is their top concern], and Bernie is clearly superior to Hillary on the environment,” said Bri Steirer, a precinct captain for the Drake University area.But the Sanders plan to convince O’Malley fans with delegates and issues may not be able to compete with Clinton’s scheme. The Clinton campaign has trained its precinct captains to use software that calculates when it benefits Clinton to give O’Malley supporters a few of their votes in order to block them from defecting to Sanders. That means Clinton supporters would help O’Malley become a viable candidate in precincts where she would still carry the day.A Sanders precinct captain, Darlene Lawler, asked Henry about whether Bernie supporters should be trying to do the same thing — helping O’Malley become viable in cases where it would help Bernie.“I would not give them three or four people to be viable because you just don’t know what could happen,” Henry said, adding that the “math” can get complicated as the night goes on, and it’s easy to make a mistake.Clinton’s campaign has an app that will help caucus leaders calculate the risks, however, which means they don’t have to worry about mistakes.
Hillary Clinton is making an emotional gun control pitch to Iowa voters-Hunter Walker-National Correspondent-January 30, 2016-YAHOONEWS
DES MOINES, Iowa — Hillary Clinton wants Iowa voters to consider gun control when they caucus in two days.At her event on Saturday, Clinton was joined by the gun control activists Mark Kelly and Gabby Giffords. Emotions ran high as Giffords, who was wounded in a mass shooting and still struggles to speak, suggested Clinton is the best candidate to “stand up to the gun lobby.” For her part, Clinton, who is normally far more subdued even when making a forceful point,, raised her voice in anger and incredulousness as she argued America’s gun laws must change.“When I’ve traveled around Iowa the last couple of months, I have heard about … what happens when children, young children, toddlers, kids in elementary school find that loaded gun in the closet or under the bed,” Clinton said. “I’ve heard the stories. I’ve seen the news reports about the ones who are killed … What is wrong with us? How can we continue?”Clinton was introduced at the event by her daughter, Chelsea, who said she “couldn’t imagine a stronger president to keep us safe.” After Chelsea spoke, Kelly, an astronaut, took the stage. Kelly said he and his wife believe “there is only one candidate that is willing to take on the tough fights.” He also alluded to the struggle that Giffords, a former congresswoman, has gone through in the five years since she was shot.“Gabby served for about two-and-a-half years in Congress then she was injured,” Kelly said. “You know, it’s tough for me to talk about this, but often one of the last things Gabby will say to me before she gets in the car to go to an appointment to do some grueling physical therapy, speech therapy, she’ll say, ‘Fight, fight, fight.’ She doesn’t give up.”Afterwards, Giffords made a brief statement.“Speaking is hard for me,"Giffords said. "But January, come January, I want to say these two words: Madame President.”Her words came slowly.“Hillary is tough. Hillary is courageous,” said Giffords. “In the White House she will stand up to the gun lobby. That’s why I’m voting for Hillary.”Former U.S. Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) and her husband U.S. Navy captain Mark Kelly embrace democratic presidential candidate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during a “get out the caucus” event at Iowa State University on January 30, 2016 in Ames, Iowa. Though she didn’t mention his name, the elephant in the room was clearly Clinton’s top rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.). Painting Sanders as not being a strong supporter of gun control has been one of the main attacks from the Clinton campaign during their primary fight.Clinton said her gun control policies would be “consistent with the Constitution” and claimed she is regularly approached by gun owners and hunters who agree with her stance.“I agree with President Obama. The steps that he announced are ones that i fully endorse, executive action, put more resources into the work of doing the background checks, going after the gun dealers who are so irresponsible,” Clinton said. “But none of it will stick if it’s not a voting issue and, as you go to caucus Monday night, please think about this.”
