IRELAND LISBON TREATY VOTE FRI

EU TREATY STORY AT 6 IN MORNING JUNE 13,08.

Irish Referendum Count Starts, Deciding Treaty Fate (Update3) By Fergal O'Brien

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Counting began today in an Irish referendum that will decide the fate of a new European Union governing treaty designed to boost the political clout of the 27- nation bloc.

Officials in Ireland's 43 constituencies started totaling votes at 9a.m. and returning officers expect the result by late afternoon. Early tallies showed opponents leading supporters by as much as 60 percent to 40 percent in some districts, state broadcaster RTE reported. Seven years after Ireland rejected, then ratified, the EU's Nice Treaty, all of Europe is watching the country again. Turnout may determine whether Ireland dooms the new blueprint for the bloc of almost 500 million people or puts Europe on the road to closer political union. The history on EU referenda is that No voters are more determined voters, said Noel Whelan, an attorney and former adviser to the ruling Fianna Fail party. The big difference between the first and second Nice votes was about half a million additional voters went to vote and almost all voted yes.

Turnout was about 50 percent, the Irish Times reported, without citing anyone, while state broadcaster RTE said turnout was in the low to mid-40s percentage range. That compares with the 49.5 percent turnout in the second Nice referendum in 2002, when that treaty was passed. Around 3.05 million people were registered to vote in Ireland yesterday, according to the electoral register.

Requirement

Ireland is the only EU state putting the Lisbon Treaty to a popular ballot because it was required under the constitution. All other members are ratifying the accord through national parliaments -- 18 have already done so -- and unanimous support is needed. The treaty replaces the European constitution that was killed by French and Dutch voters in 2005. The treaty had the backing of all the main political parties in Ireland, and a defeat would be an early setback for Prime Minister Brian Cowen, who replaced Bertie Ahern a month ago. The former finance minister emphasized the benefits of Ireland's 35 years of EU membership and had described the vote as an issue of national importance.Even Pope Benedict XVI intervened to urge closer European integration, this week describing the 6th-century Irish missionary Saint Columbanus as one of the fathers of Europe, the British Broadcasting Corp. reported yesterday.

Growing Opposition

Opposition to the treaty increased in the weeks before the ballot, polls indicated. An Irish Times/TNS MRBI poll published June 6 gave opponents a lead for the first time, 35 percent to 30 percent. A poll published by the Sunday Business Post two days later showed supporters leading by 42 percent to 39 percent, within the margin of error, with 19 percent undecided. Opponents, which include political parties Sinn Fein and the Socialists, and Libertas, a privately funded group set up to fight the treaty, argue the 277-page accord weakens Ireland's voice by failing to guarantee it a spot on the European Commission, undermines national control of taxes and removes a veto in agriculture and trade talks. Supporters call these claims misleading. In a bid to rally support, Cowen held a press conference with the leaders of Fine Gael and Labour, the largest opposition parties, three days before the ballot. To win the backing of farming organizations, he said he would use Ireland's veto in trade talks if the deal was unacceptable, days after his foreign minister said it was too early to be threatening vetoes. Overall, a rejection of the treaty is unlikely to blot the economic landscape in Ireland or Europe, said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin. But the optics are important to external audiences, especially as Ireland has marketed itself to overseas investors as very much being part of Europe.To contact the reporters on this story: Fergal O'Brien in Dublin at fobrien@bloomberg.net

UPDATE AT 1 PM EDT. I NEVER THOUGHT THE NO VOTE WOULD WIN, THIS MIGHT THROW THE EU INTO A TWO SPEED EUROPE NOW WITH THIRTEEN COUNTRIES BEING THE MAIN TEER AND THE REST ASSOCIATE MEMBERS. SOMEHOW THE POST OF EU PRESIDENT WILL STAND, BUT RIGHT NOW I DON"T KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT WITH THIS NO VOTE.

Ireland rejects EU reform treaty with 53.4 percent no vote
38 minutes ago JUNE 13,08

DUBLIN, Ireland (AP) — Electoral officials say Irish voters have rejected the European Union reform treaty with a national No vote of 53.4 percent.The blueprint for modernizing the 27-nation bloc cannot become law without Irish approval and its defeat is a major blow to the EU.Rural and working-class voters heavily rejected the treaty to modernize the EU's powers and institutions in line with its rapid expansion since 2004.Ireland was the only EU member to seek to ratify the Lisbon Treaty through a national referendum. All others are doing so only through their national governments.Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen will join other EU leaders at a summit next week to try to negotiate a new way forward.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

DUBLIN, Ireland (AP) — Substantial election returns showed Friday that Ireland's voters have rejected the European Union reform treaty, a blueprint for modernizing the 27-nation bloc that cannot become law without Irish approval.Several senior Irish government figures conceded defeat for the treaty, which would be a major blow to the EU.An EU constitution failed after French and Dutch voters rejected it in 2005. Ireland was the only member that subjected its would-be successor, the Lisbon Treaty, to a national vote. The Irish constitution requires all EU treaties to be ratified by referendum.Justice Minister Dermot Ahern said he expected all other 26 EU members to ratify the Lisbon Treaty through their national parliaments by the end of this year.This would leave Ireland diplomatically isolated but nonetheless wielding the power to prevent the treaty from becoming law and forcing a period of renewed negotiations.Obviously it's disappointing. It's quite clear there's a very substantial `no' vote, said Ahern, who noted that 58 percent of voters rejected the treaty in his home district.If we're left as the only country that has not ratified the treaty, it will obviously raise questions. We're in uncharted waters, he said.

National vote tallies compiled by election observers and backed by early official returns from Thursday's vote showed the no camp winning the vast majority of Ireland's 43 electoral constituencies.
This is a huge rebuff to the political establishment. It shows there is massive distrust among ordinary working people, said Joe Higgins, the sole Socialist Party member in the Irish parliament.

At the major ballot-counting center in Dublin, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan struggled to speak to reporters as anti-treaty activists jubilantly drowned him out with songs and chants of No! He eventually gave up and walked out, as one activist waved a sign reading No to foreign rule over his head.The pro-treaty vote was ahead in only half a dozen constituencies.Rural and working-class areas were almost universally anti-treaty. Better-off parts of Dublin registered stronger support for the EU. In suburban south Dublin, a largely wealthy and highly educated district, the yes camp triumphed with 63 percent of the vote. But a neighboring, scruffier district voted 65 percent no.Electoral officials expected to announce the total results later Friday. The euro common currency fell to a one-month low on the news.The Lisbon Treaty and the failed constitution before it sought to reshape EU powers and institutions in line with the bloc's rapid growth in size and population since 2004.

Both documents proposed to strengthen the roles of the EU's president and foreign policy chief, reduce the areas where individual nations could veto policy changes and increase the powers of the European Parliament to scrutinize EU laws.Ireland views itself as a pro-EU state that has broadly benefited from 35 years of membership. Yet even here, a majority of voters appeared determined to register their opposition to the growth of a continental government that would erode Ireland's sense of independence.Anti-treaty pressure groups warned that the EU would use treaty powers to reduce Ireland's ability to control its own tax rates and maintain a ban on abortion. Such claims were vociferously rejected by the government and major opposition parties, all of whom campaigned for the treaty's ratification.

People felt a convincing case for the treaty had not been made, and they felt hectored and bullied into supporting it while the wool was being pulled over their eyes, said Richard Boyd Barrett, leader of a hard-left pressure group called People Before Profit.

EU referendum: Gordon Brown under pressure to ditch Lisbon Treaty after Ireland's no vote By Tom Peterkin 5:57PM BST 13/06/2008

Gordon Brown is under intense pressure to declare that the Lisbon Treaty is dead after it was rejected by Irish voters, throwing plans for European integration into chaos. 13 Jun 08: Telegraph writer and SE England MEP Daniel Hannan has congratulated the Irish for voting 'no' to implementing the controversial EU Lisbon Treaty. ; http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1488655367/bctid1606750380 http://www.brightcove.com/channel.jsp?channel=1139053637

The Treaty was rejected by 53.4 per cent of Irish voters in a decision which has far-reaching implications for Europe and threatens to kill the pact. A vigorous No campaign overcame the Irish political establishment to undermine the Treaty, which replaced the highly controversial European Constitution and was supposed to streamline an enlarged EU. For the treaty to come into force in January 2009, it had to be ratified by all 27 member states, a law that placed its fate in the hands of Ireland, as the only country to hold a referendum on the issue. The result was greeted with delight by Eurosceptics, who have argued that a referendum ought to be held in Britain. In its 2005 General Election manifesto, Labour promised to go to the people on the European Constitution. The Government reneged on that commitment after the Constitution was thrown out by the French and the Dutch and was superseded by the Lisbon Treaty. David Heathcoat-Amory, the Conservative MP, said: The Lisbon Treaty is dead.On BBC Radio 4's World At One, Mr Heathcoat-Amory added: Of course, (ratification) must be halted. The Bill before the British Parliament must be withdrawn because under the European Union's own laws this cannot proceed now. The Lisbon Treaty is dead. When the French and Dutch voted no in 2005 the British Government did halt that particular Bill.

If they don't do the same this time it'll be quite clearly because they want to put pressure on Ireland and the people of Ireland to change their mind.But reacting to the result, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso still called on other members states to ratify the treaty. I believe the treaty is alive and we should now try to find a solution, he insisted in Brussels. The Irish government and the governments of the other member states will now need to assess what this result means for the process. The treaty was signed by all 27 member states, so there is a joint responsibility to address the situation.The result was a humiliation for Brian Cowen, the newly appointed Irish Prime Minister, who has to travel to Brussels next week for the European Council leaders' summit. There he will have to explain why a country with an electorate of only 2.8 million has managed to thwart a document affecting the lives of the EU's 495 million citizens. Mr Cowen's Fianna Fail party joined forces with Ireland's main parties, apart from Sinn Fein, to fight for the yes vote that would have ratified an agreement that the Irish Government helped to negotiate. With Ireland's Celtic Tiger economy having benefited from £32 billion in EU grants, some Europhiles might suggest the result was produced by an ungrateful nation. But a No Campaign masterminded by the Libertas Group led by Declan Ganley highlighted fears that the Treaty would undermine Ireland's influence in Europe, would open the door to interference in taxation and enshrine EU law above Irish law. Mr Ganley said: The No result is the final answer on this particular Treaty. That's democracy. That's how it works. This was such a bad deal for Ireland and all of Europe and people knew that.Campaigners also claimed that Ireland's treasured neutrality and its stance on abortion would also be affected by the Treaty, assertions that were disputed by the Yes Camp. An indication of the intensity of the emotions came when Brian Lenihan arrived at the main Dublin count. There he struggled to make himself heard as he encountered campaigners chanting no. Attempting to address reporters, he eventually gave up and walked out, as one activist waved a sign reading No to foreign rule over his head.