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INSIDE THE EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION: VIOLENCE IS RISING BECAUSE THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IS COOPTING THE MOVEMENT: An analysis of the rapidly changing dynamicPosted: January 30, 2011 by joelcrosenberg

A protester burns a picture of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak during clashes in Cairo January 28, 2011. Police and demonstrators fought running battles on the streets of Cairo on Friday in a fourth day of unprecedented protests by tens of thousands of Egyptians demanding an end to Mubarak's three-decade rule. (REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh)

In the past several days, the dynamic of the protests in Egypt has changed rapidly, and not for the better. What started out as a genuine and positive pro-freedom movement is being steadily coopted by the Muslim Brotherhood and other violent and extremist forces. There is now a growing risk that the overthrow of the Mubarak regime could lead either to an authoritarian military regime, or a Radical Islamist regime. We must pray neither scenario comes to pass. The people of Egypt would be further oppressed. The U.S., Israel and the West would be endangered. Bottom line: This is a very complex and fast-moving crisis, and it could get much worse.

Let me explain and put the situation in some context.In my 2009 non-fiction book Inside The Revolution: Why the followers of Jihad, Jefferson and Jesus are battling to dominate the Middle East and take over the world, I outlined a range of players in the region, who they are and what they want:

•The Radicals are extremist Muslims who want to overthrow every regime from North Africa to the Middle East to Central Asia and replace them with Islamist dictatorships who believe that Islam is the answer and jihad is the way. These include groups such as al Qaeda, Iranian Twelvers, Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the like.
•The Reformers are moderate Muslims who say, Islam is the answer, but jihad is not the way; we need more freedom, more openness, more protection of human rights and civil rights, free elections, free markets, and the creation of full-blown Jeffersonian democracies, if at all possible. In this group historically have been Kemal Mustafa Ataturk (the founder of modern, democratic Turkey; though sadly Turkey is now moving away from his model); Egyptian President Anwar Sadat (who made peace with Israel but was then assassinated by Radicals); Jordanian Kings Hussein (the father, who made peace with Israel and initiated a democratically elected parliament while retaining his authority as monarch) and Abdullah II (the son and current monarch who has been advancing his father’s reforms incrementally); Morrocan King Mohammed VI; the current leaders of Iraq such as President Jalal Talabani and Nouri al-Maliki; and the popular pro-democracy movement in Iran that we saw take to the streets by the millions last summer)
•The Revivalists are former Muslims who say, Islam is not the answer, jihad is not the way, Jesus is the way — and the only way for our part of the world to move forward and make real and lasting social, economic and spiritual progress is to skip back in our history before Islam and revive what we once had: first century, New Testament, Biblical Christianity.These followers of Jesus Christ in the Islamic world tend to be apolitical and are focused on evangelism, discipleship, church planting, pastor training and spiritual renewal. By using dual strategies of an air war (satellite TV, radio and the Internet) and a ground war (especially the house church movement), their numbers have swelled into the millions since 1979, despite widespread (and recently intensifying) persecution. I profile a number of their leaders in the book, though few of them are known by name in the West.
These first three are the revolutionary forces in the region, people and movements who advocate and push for dramatic, sweeping change.

Then there is another set of important players:

•The Resisters tend to be secular Arab nationalist leaders who oppose significant change of almost any kind. They may be Muslims but they certainly aren’t revolutionaries. They don’t want to build an Islamic empire. They want to build their own empires. They want to hold onto the power, wealth and prestige that they currently have, and gain more if they can. They strongly oppose revolutionary movements of all kinds. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is a classic Resister. So are leaders like Syrian President Bashar Assad, Libyan leader Moammar Ghadaffi, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, and so forth. Previously, Saddam Hussein fell into this camp.
•The Reticent tend to be weak-willed Arab leaders who seem constantly pulled in opposite directions. They don’t have strong convictions. At times they seem to want peace with Israel, for example, and even a modicum of political or social reform, but then other forces push back at them and they waffle or change their tune. At the moment, Palestinian Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is the best example of a Reticent leader. He has been offered historic deals by recent Israeli Prime Ministers to make peace and create a Palestinian state and have dramatic economic change and growth. He has occassionally shown real interest in positive change, but has never had the courage to say yes.
•Finally, and most importantly, are the Rank-and-File — these are the billion-plus everyday Muslims citizens who work hard, play by the rules, are trying to find decent jobs to feed and educate their families. They aren’t revolutionaries. They long for more freedom and opportunity, but mainly they keep their heads down and try not to be noticed and not be interfered with. They are the audience to which the revolutionaries are playing. They are watching the battle between the Radicals and the Reformers, and they are increasingly curious about the message of the Revivalists. And some of them are making their move and joining one of the revolutionary movements.
That said, let’s focus again on the crisis at hand. What we are witnessing in Egypt is an historic clash between true Reformer Muslims who want free elections and free markets, and Radical Muslims who want to use the protests to overthrow the Mubarak regime and install a violent, extremist Islamist government. The Revivalists in Egypt are, for the most part, staying underground. True to their nature, they are remaining apolitical and are devoting themselves to much prayer for the future of their country and the souls of their friends and neighbors.

For the first first few days of last week, most of the initial protestors on the streets of Egypt were peaceful, respectful, somewhat educated, and poor to middle class. I believe they were genuinely calling for an end to the Mubarak regime’s corruption and authoritarian rule in order to achieve more freedom, more opportunity, a better economy, more and better jobs, and a democratic government that would respect and protect their human rights and civil rights and set them free from the stagnant, stultified, oppressive Egyptian system they have suffered under for so long.However, beginning on Thursday and accelerating throughout the day on Friday, the situation began to change dramatically.The leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood (which began in Egypt in the 1920) had initially been caught off guard by sudden and intense rise of the protests and had not been involved in planning or developing these protests. But sensing an opportunity, they decided to move decisively and try to coopt the movement for their own purposes. They mobilized their followers throughout the country and told them to take to the streets. That’s when the complexion of the protests took a turn for the worse, characterized by:

•Violent attacks directed at the police – Agence France Presse reported on Saturday that an estimated 60 percent of Egyptian police stations have been set on fire
•Rioting, instead of mere protesting
•The emergence of gangs on the streets wielding machetes and knives
•Government office buildings being set on fire
•Cars being set on fire
•The looting of the Egyptian Museum, with vandals ripping the heads off of two ancient mummies
•Looting of shops, businesses and homes
•Muslim Brotherhood members escaping from prison –[see this article as well]
•A rising civilian death toll as the police have been forced to defend themselves and protect other citizens — as of Sunday, there were more than 100 people dead, and more than 2,000 wounded.These are not the actions of a true pro-freedom movement. Almost none of this happened last summer when millions of Iranians took to the streets to protest the fraudulent re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. To the contrary, the Iranian people, to their great credit, initiated what was overwhelming a classic non-violent, principled protest movement against the Radical regime.

President Mubarak’s response to the protests has been badly overdone and typically authoritarian — shutting down the Internet, blocking social media like Facebook and Twitter, and now blocking even the Al Jazeera satellite TV network. What’s more, the police and army at times have been thuggish and brutal (though not always; their have been fascinating reports of policemen and soldiers embracing the protestors, encouraging them even).So I find myself in a quandary. I strongly support the right of the Egyptian people to have free elections and free markets and true opportunity in the 21st century. What’s more, I want the Church to be free to share the gospel and win Muslims to faith in Jesus Christ, make disciples and plant new congregations without government oppression and without violent attacks by Radical Muslims. I do believe Mubarak has stayed too long. He has not responded to the yearning of the Egyptian people to be free. His day is coming to an end.That said, however, I don’t want to see the Muslim Brotherhood win. For all of Mubarak’s sins, he is not a Radical. He doesn’t want to launch a jihad against the U.S., Israel or the West. He has maintained the peace treaty with Israel. He has worked to counter the Hamas movement in Gaza. He is strongly opposed to the Iranian nuclear weapons program and has worked closely with the West to counter it. The Obama administration needs to be careful to support positive change in Egypt and support human rights there, without cutting the legs out from underneath Mubarak precipitously, the way President Carter did to the Shah of Iran in 1979. The Shah had his many flaws, no question about it. But Carter’s actions helped trigger the Islamic Revolution and led to the rise of the Ayatollah Khomeini, the loss of an American ally, and the rise of a terror-exporting country that has gained in lethality ever since. We dare not make the same mistakes with Egypt.

I am praying, therefore, that the Lord would be merciful to the people of Egypt, and that He would give wisdom to Mr. Mubarak and his senior advisors. My ideal at this point is that Mubarak would hand the keys to the kingdom to a group of Reformers, men truly committed to steadily expanding hope, growth and opportunity for all their people, and doing so in a way that creates order and stability, not an opening for the Muslim Brotherhood to seize control. This will not be easy. I am not convinced Egypt spymaster-turned-new-Vice President Omar Suleiman is the man to accomplish this. But I know that ultimately the Lord is in charge, and this — and nothing else — is what should give us all hope.As the Hebrew Prophet Daniel once said while living under a brutal Middle Eastern dictator:

Let the name of God be blessed forever and ever,
For wisdom and power belong to Him.
It is He who changes the times and the epochs;
He removes kings and establishes kings;
He gives wisdom to wise men
And knowledge to men of understanding.(Daniel 2:20-21)

Fighter jets swoop over Cairo in show of force By HAMZA HENDAWI and MAGGIE MICHAEL, Associated Press - JAN 30,2011

CAIRO – Fighter jets swooped low over Cairo Sunday in what appeared to be an attempt by the military to assert control of a city beset by looting, armed robbery and anti-government protests.Minutes before the start of a 4 p.m. curfew, at least two jets made multiple passes over downtown, including a central square where thousands of Egyptians were calling for the departure of President Hosni Mubarak.Police could be seen returning to some streets nearly two days after they virtually disappeared, creating a security vacuum only partially filled by the presence of army troops backed by tanks at key sites around this city of 18 million people.The army made no attempt to disperse some 5,000 protesters gathered at Tahrir Square, which protesters have occupied since Friday afternoon in violation of a nighttime curfew. The military has been generally welcomed by demonstrators across Cairo, unlike the widely despised police.Nobel Peace laureate and democracy advocate Mohamed ElBaradei appeared in the square around 7 p.m., live television footage showed.On the first day of trading across the Mideast after a weekend of violent protests, nervous investors drove stocks down sharply, and crowds filled Cairo International Airport, desperate and unable to leave.

Banks were closed on orders from Egypt's Central Bank, and the country's stock market was shut on what is normally the first day of the trading week.Gangs of armed men attacked at least four jails across Egypt before dawn, helping to free hundreds of Muslim militants and thousands of other inmates. Gangs of young men with guns and large sticks smashed cars and robbed people in Cairo.An unprecedented Internet cutoff remained in place after the country's four primary Internet providers stopped moving data in and out of the country early Friday in an apparent move by authorities to disrupt the organization of demonstrations blaming Mubarak's regime for poverty, unemployment, widespread corruption and police brutality.ElBaradei called on American television for Mubarak to step down, telling CBS' Face the Nation that, He absolutely has to leave ... The American government cannot ask the Egyptian people to believe that a dictator who has been in power for 30 years will be the one to implement democracy.Egyptian mobile-phone networks were back up but with text-messaging widely disrupted. Because of its ability to reach many people with a single message, text messaging has been a tool of protesters across the world.The official death toll from five days of growing crisis stood at 74, with thousands injured.The U.S. Embassy in Cairo told its citizens in Egypt to consider leaving the country as soon as possible, and said it had authorized the voluntary departure of dependents and non-emergency employees, a display of Washington's escalating concern about the stability of its closest Arab ally.Private tour groups and corporations began trying to evacuate their clients and expatriate employees. But dozens of flights were canceled and delayed.Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the U.S. expects that the protests in Egypt will lead to free and fair elections as part of an orderly transition to real democracy.

I want the Egyptian people to have a chance to chart a new future, she said. It's not a question of who retains power ... It's how are we going to respond to the legitimate needs and grievances expressed by the Egyptian people.Israel's prime minister told his Cabinet that he was anxiously following the crisis, saying in his first public comments on the situation that Israel's three-decade-old peace agreement with Egypt must be preserved.After a night of violence in many cities across Egypt, the army sent hundreds more troops and armored vehicles onto the streets starting Sunday morning. State television showed Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi in green fatigues outside the state TV headquarters in downtown Cairo, speaking with soldiers and civilian onlookers.Truckloads of hundreds of police poured back into Cairo neighborhoods Sunday afternoon and took up positions on the streets.In some spots, they were jeered by residents who chanted anti-police slogans and demanded that they only be allowed to deploy jointly with the military.In one part of Tahrir Square, soldiers working with civilian protester volunteers were even checking IDs and bags of people arriving at the square, saying they were searching for weapons and making sure plainclothes police did not enter the square.The army is protecting us, they won't let police infiltrators sneak in! one volunteer shouted.

Then, as the curfew loomed, the jets roared over the Nile and toward Tahrir Square in the heart of Cairo, where thousands of protesters have gathered each day to demand the end of the administration.The jets made several passes over the square, dropping lower every time and setting off alarms in parked cars.Some protesters clapped and waved to them while others jeered.This is terrorism, they are trying to scare the people with the planes and the tanks. They are trying to make people afraid and leave the square, said Gamal Ahmed, a 40-year-old air-conditioning technician.Lines of army tanks jammed a road leading into Tahrir, and a military helicopter hovered overhead.Massive trucks and cranes moved 3-foot-high (meter-high) concrete barriers in front of the foreign ministry in central Cairo near the Nile.

Troops in full combat gear and half a dozen armored personnel carriers guarded one of the largest symbols of the government.Mubarak, 82, perpetuated the overriding role of military men in Egyptian politics by naming his intelligence chief, former army general Omar Suleiman, to the new role of vice president on Saturday. Ahmed Shafiq, the outgoing civil aviation minister and Mubarak fellow former air force officer, was named prime minister.State TV Sunday showed images of Mubarak during what it said was a visit to the country's military command center. The president looked somber and fatigued in his first public appearance since he addressed the nation late Friday to promise reform and annouce the dismissal of his Cabinet. The brief footage appeared designed to project an image of normalcy.Egyptian security officials said that overnight armed men fired at guards in gun battles that lasted hours at the four prisons including one northwest of Cairo that held hundreds of militants. The prisoners escaped after starting fires and clashing with guards. Those who fled included 34 members of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest and best organized opposition group. The Muslim Brotherhood's lawyer, Abdel-Monaem Abdel-Maqsoud, told The Associated Press the 34 were among scores rounded up by authorities ahead of the large anti-government demonstrations on Friday. The escapees included at least seven senior members of the group.

The security officials said several inmates were killed and wounded, but gave no specific figures. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to share the information with the media.The officials told The Associated Press that army troops were hunting for the escaped prisoners, in some cases with the help of the police. State television also showed footage of what it said was dozens of prisoners recaptured by the army troops, squatting on dirt while soldiers kept watch over them.In the southern city of Assiut, officials said riot police stormed the city's main prison to quell a prison riot, using tear gas and batons against inmates. An Associated Press reporter saw army tanks were deployed outside the prison, on bridges straddling the Nile and at the police headquarters.Thousands of Alexandrians met to pray in downtown Alexandria, a Mediterranean port city that is a stronghold of the Muslim Brotherhood. After prayers, the crowd marched towards the city's old mosque to pray for the souls of those who died in the protests.

Egyptian mobile networks were back up after days of cutoffs but with text-messaging widely disrupted. Blackberry Messenger and mobile Internet services were operating sporadically.The pan-Arab broadcaster Al-Jazeera said that Egyptian authorities ordered the closure of its Cairo news hub overseeing coverage of the country's massive street protests, denouncing the move as an attempt to stifle and repress open reporting.The Qatar-based network has given nearly round-the-clock coverage to the unprecedented uprising against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and had faced criticism by some government supporters and other Arab leaders as a forum to inspire more unrest.Sarah El Deeb and Diaa Hadid contributed to this report.

Civilians watch over neighborhoods in Egypt chaos By MARJORIE OLSTER, Associated Press - JAN 30,2011

CAIRO – When Egypt's police melted from the streets of Cairo this weekend, the people stepped in.Civilians armed with knives, axes, golf clubs, firebombs, metal bars and makeshift spears watched over many neighborhoods in the sprawling capital of 18 million this weekend, defending their families and homes against widespread looting and lawlessness.The thugs had exploited the chaos created by the largest anti-government protests in decades and the military failed to fill the vacuum left by police.On Saturday, the army sent out an appeal for citizens to help.The military encourages neighborhood youth to defend their property and their honor, it said in a statement.On Sunday, joint teams of civilians and military were patrolling, some with guard dogs.Mohammed Gafaar, a 34-year old salesman in the Nasr City area, said his neighborhood watch organized soon after the night curfew went into force at 4 p.m. They did it at the behest of residents, who appealed for protection of their property, sending out the call from the local mosque.I feel betrayed by the police, said Gaafar, who had carried rocks, a stick and a firebomb in a soda bottle. They have to be tried for the protesters they killed and for their treason. They left the country to be looted. I am angry at the regime.Akram al-Sharif, a 33-year old Cairo resident who lives in one of the affluent compounds in the city's west at the edge of the desert, said locals hired twenty bedouins with guns, and organized into groups to protect the five gates of the compound.I am happy this is happening. There was solidarity, he said. But he criticized the military for failing to protect private property.

The troubles began after days of protests calling for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak reached a crescendo Friday, when tens of thousands poured into the streets after noon prayers in the city's 3,000 mosques. The protests quickly spiraled into clashes with riot police, who fired countless canisters of tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons and beat the demonstrators with sticks.By Friday night, protesters had set fire to the ruling party headquarters along the Nile in central Cairo and the first reports of looting emerged — people making off with electric fans and televisions from the burning complex. Mubarak ordered the military into the streets for the first time to try to control the escalating turmoil.On Saturday, the tens of thousands of police who normally patrol the streets vanished. Security officials, asked why they disappeared, said that remained unclear. But the police, who are hated by many, may have been seen as just fanning the flames.Throughout the day, shops and malls were ransacked and burned, and residents of affluent neighborhoods began reporting burglaries by gangs of thugs roaming the streets with knives and guns. By mid-afternoon, shopowners and residents were boarding up their stores and houses.Gangs of armed men attacked jails, sending thousands of inmates into the unpoliced streets.As night fell, the neighborhood watches took up where the police left off.In the affluent neighborhood of Zamalek, where many foreigners live and embassies are located, groups of young men, some as large as 40 people, set up barricades on every street entrance to the island in the middle of the Nile.In other neighborhoods, residents wore arm bands to identify each other and prevent infiltrators from coming into their midst. In Zamalek, a handwritten announcement hanging on a street window asked people to register their names for neighborhood defense committees.

Watch groups armed themselves with a makeshift arsenal of shovels, baseball bats, whips, and the occasional shotgun. Young men organized themselves into shifts, and locals brought tea and other snacks.We have these firebombs, just in case, said Amm Saleh, the doorman of a building in Zamalek. Some of these thugs are armed with knives and guns, so we have to be able to defend ourselves, he added, showing off a line of kerosene-filled bottles with paper wicks ready for action. Neighborhood guardians set up metal barricades and stopped cars, questioning them about their destinations and street addresses and sometimes searching them. With many roads blocked, drivers went the wrong way on largely empty one-way streets to get around.

Long after midnight, gunshots rang out on a scenic street along the Nile, near the Indian embassy and the Algerian ambassador's residence. One youth said the neighborhood watch confronted the passengers of a car, one with a firearm, and persuaded them to leave.Residents said they were filled with pride to see Egyptians looking out for each other in a society where many, if not most, struggle just to subsist.Gaafar, the salesman, had returned from Dubai to take part in the protests. He said he feels sad at how things turned out, but believes it won't deter people from continuing to protest.This has brought out the best in people, he said.There were people who were much younger than me who have never come across gunfire before... They looked scared. But they were still standing. Everyone was so brave.As the curfew began at 4 p.m. Sunday, police were seen returning to some neighborhoods and working in tandem with the army to try to restore a sense of security. Associated Press reporter Sarah El Deeb contributed to this report from Cairo.